“Today Qatar, tomorrow Turkey”- this phrase is dominating social media as speculation grows about a possible Israel Turkey strike following Israel’s surprise attack in Doha against Hamas officials.
The discussion centres on Turkey, where Hamas has long maintained offices and support networks. While no official confirmation exists, the scenario is fuelling debates about regional geopolitics, Ankara’s position within NATO, and the limits of Israel’s strategy against Hamas.
Tensions had already been high in Turkey in recent days after Israel’s National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir wrote on X that “Turkey = Hamas.”
Analyses and posts are multiplying online.
Michael Rubin, writing in The National Interest under the headline “Israel just struck Hamas in Qatar: Turkey could be next,” argues that Turkey may be the next target- the last refuge of the organisation. The article stresses that NATO membership does not necessarily protect Ankara from an Israeli strike. Article 5 is not automatic and could be blocked by countries such as the US, Sweden or Finland, all of which have clashed with Ankara.
The analysis recalls Israel’s long history of pursuing terrorist organisations abroad — from Munich in 1972 to the PLO strike in Tunisia. Today, Hamas is considered to have no safe haven in Gaza, Iran or Qatar, making its presence in Turkey vulnerable. Rubin concludes that if Turkey continues to host and support Hamas, it risks being treated as a “state sponsor of terrorism,” with potential Israeli strikes that NATO may not cover.
Israeli analyst Meir Marsi voiced similar views:
Related posts have also appeared from Israeli and pro-Israeli accounts on X:
Turkey’s reaction
President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan told Qatari Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani in a phone call on Tuesday that Ankara would stand by Doha “in every way” after Israel’s strike on Hamas in Qatar, according to Reuters citing a statement from the Turkish presidency.
The presidency added that Erdoğan and the Emir discussed possible joint steps in response to the Israeli attack.
The Turkish Foreign Ministry condemned the strike, accusing Israel of adopting “expansionism and terrorism” as state policy. “Targeting the Hamas negotiating delegation while ceasefire talks are ongoing shows that Israel does not seek peace, but rather the continuation of war,” it added.
Regarding Israel's Attack in Doha, Qatar https://t.co/fH6CfFvREb pic.twitter.com/GiV9uPQC1L
— Turkish MFA (@MFATurkiye) September 9, 2025
Meanwhile, Turkish journalist Ragıp Soylu commented on X that Turkey is always labelled “the next target” in every regional crisis. With biting humour, he dismissed the scenario that Israel would dare to launch an F-16 strike on Turkish soil against Hamas leaders, underlining the exaggeration of such theories.
NATO reaction scenarios
Some analysts are even debating what NATO would do if Israel bombed Turkey. Their likely answer: nothing substantial — only statements and calls for restraint. Article 5 does not apply automatically, and many allies would resist, given Ankara’s past crises over Russian S-400s, threats against Greece, blocking Sweden’s accession, and interventions in Syria, Libya and Karabakh.
By contrast, Israel is regarded as a trusted partner by the US and Europe, and no NATO country would risk confrontation with it. Strategically, NATO exists to counter Russia, not to defend a government in Ankara that has weakened alliance cohesion. In such a scenario, Turkey would be left alone and humiliated.
🔴 Analysis: What would NATO do if Israel bombed Turkey?
— Tariq al-Khatib (@truetruepk) September 9, 2025
The likely answer: nothing but empty words.
Article 5 is not automatic. NATO members must agree that an ally has been attacked and that collective defense applies. Many would refuse – because Turkey has burned nearly… pic.twitter.com/WucnvTSoDB
The Israel Turkey strike rumours highlight both the unpredictability of the conflict and the fragility of regional alliances.
Also read: Israel Doha strike targets senior Hamas officials in Qatar
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