International analysts are expressing serious concerns about the risks of a new naval mission in the Strait of Hormuz following a call by Donald Trump for allied countries to deploy warships to secure maritime navigation.
The US President has pledged to reopen the strategic waterway, a crucial route for global energy supplies that Iran is accused of disrupting. However, military analysts and naval officials warn that such an operation could turn into a dangerous maritime trap.
Despite assurances from Trump and US Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth that escort operations for oil tankers could begin soon, the situation on the ground remains extremely complex. At its narrowest point, the strait is only about 21 miles wide, making military vessels particularly vulnerable.
Naval officers describe the area as a potential “kill box”, where ships could be exposed to attacks by Iranian drones and anti ship missiles. Experts note that Iran has the capability to launch long range drones such as the Shahed from deep within its territory.
According to Mohammad Elmasry of the Doha Institute, large warships are relatively slow and could become easy targets in such a confined environment. Analysts say a safe escort mission would require at least two warships per tanker, along with constant aerial surveillance using drones such as the MQ-9 Reaper.
Reports suggest that Washington is even considering deploying ground forces to secure parts of the coastline, with around 2,200 marines already sent to the region. However, experts warn that controlling coastal areas would not eliminate the threat, as Iran possesses long range missile systems capable of striking from deep inland.
Recent attacks on oil tankers near the coast of Iraq highlight the wider vulnerability of the Persian Gulf. More than 20 attacks on commercial vessels have been recorded since the start of the conflict, raising concerns across the global shipping industry.
Former Pentagon official Mick Mulroy noted that the final decision ultimately rests with shipowners and insurers, who are unlikely to resume operations without a full ceasefire and clear guarantees from Tehran.
Insurance companies are already refusing coverage, while Lloyd’s List Intelligence predicts shipping traffic could fall to just 10 percent of normal levels. Even with support from allies such as France and United Kingdom, restoring normal maritime activity for the hundreds of ships currently stranded may prove impossible without a diplomatic solution.
Sources: Philenews.com, ertnews, Al Jazeera, Wall Street Journal
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