Cyprus could see exceptionally heavy winter rains this year, according to Leonidas Leonidou, an amateur weather analyst who has spent 66 years studying the traditional forecasting method known as “minallagia”.
Speaking on SIGMA’s “Protoselido” programme, Leonidou presented his predictions for the months ahead, saying this year’s signs point to more rainfall than he has seen throughout the decades he has practised the method.
Minallagia is an old form of weather prediction based entirely on observing the sky and natural phenomena during the beginning of August, with those observations then used to make predictions for the year ahead.
The practice was particularly valuable to earlier generations, before modern meteorological technology and forecasting tools became available.
Kouris Dam could overflow, Leonidou says
Leonidou said the Cyprus winter rains indicated by his observations could be so extensive that Kouris Dam may overflow.
He noted that the dam has overflowed only three times since it was built in 1984.
His assessment is based on minallagia rather than modern meteorological forecasting, and represents a traditional prediction rather than an official weather forecast.
When rain is predicted
According to Leonidou’s minallagia observations, rain is expected during the following periods:
- September: 12-18 and 28-30
- October: 1-4, 15-20, with very good rainfall expected across most of Cyprus, and 27-30
- November: 2-5, 14-20 and 25-30
- December: 1-10, 15-20, with substantial rainfall, and 27-30, when the first snow is predicted
- January: 2-3, 6-7, 15-20 and 28-30, with rain and snowfall
- March: 8-10, 13-18 and 28-30
- April: 14-18, with rain and considerable hail, and 25-28
- May: 7-10, 15-20 and 27-30
- June: 5-7, 16-18 and 22-25
Leonidou also said rainfall is expected during both July and August.
Traditional signs point to unusually wet year
Leonidou said the rainfall indicated by this year’s observations is greater than anything he has seen during his 66 years of working with minallagia.
If the traditional signs prove accurate, Cyprus winter rains would be particularly frequent from October through January, with further periods of unsettled weather continuing into spring and summer.
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