Crude oil shipments to Asia from the Middle East are expected to accelerate in the coming weeks, as more than 60 million barrels of oil trapped in the Persian Gulf prepare to exit the Strait of Hormuz and head towards Asian markets once maritime routes fully reopen.
Around 62 million barrels of crude oil, carried by nearly three dozen very large crude carriers, are expected to reach Asia within weeks, according to data cited from Signal Group and reported by OilPrice.com via Bloomberg.
Asia faces delayed supply wave
Asia, which was first and most severely affected by reduced oil supply earlier this year, is now likely to face a wave of delayed crude deliveries that could place pressure on prices.
Refineries across the region, including in China, have already reduced operating rates due to supply constraints and higher costs for alternative crude sources.
Refiners adjust to changing market
The anticipated inflow of crude could prompt some Asian refiners to increase processing rates or rebuild depleted commercial stockpiles.
However, traders cited by Bloomberg said refineries currently hold sufficient inventories to cover demand for at least June and July after sourcing crude from West Africa and the Americas to offset Middle East shortages.
Market outlook and price forecasts
Morgan Stanley now expects Brent crude to average around $80 per barrel in the final quarter of 2026 and $90 in the third quarter, revising down its earlier forecasts.
Goldman Sachs also lowered its Brent price projections, forecasting $80 per barrel for Q4 and $75 on average for 2027, citing expectations of improved supply flows.
Analysts expect tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz to fully normalise by the end of July, easing global supply disruptions.
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