Europe has less than one month’s worth of aviation fuel reserves, as renewed tensions in the Middle East and uncertainty surrounding the Strait of Hormuz continue to raise concerns over energy supplies.
While the European Commission says jet fuel supplies remain stable overall, it has warned that the situation remains fragile and requires close monitoring.
According to Reuters calculations, Europe held around 38 million barrels of aviation fuel at the beginning of June, equivalent to fewer than 30 days of consumption. By comparison, the United States maintains stockpiles nearly three times larger, leaving it less exposed to potential market disruptions.
Europe also relies heavily on imported fuel after decades of declining refining capacity.
Supplies remain stable for now
The European Commission’s Energy Union Task Force said the aviation fuel market has so far remained resilient thanks to increased production at European refineries and additional imports from the United States, Canada, Nigeria, India, Kuwait and South Korea.
The Commission also said there are currently no immediate concerns over energy security ahead of the winter of 2026–27, adding that targets for filling natural gas storage facilities remain achievable.
However, Brussels warned that geopolitical developments in the Middle East continue to create uncertainty, particularly for maritime transport through the Strait of Hormuz.
Strait of Hormuz remains critical
The Strait of Hormuz is one of the world’s most important energy shipping routes, carrying around 20% of global seaborne oil and liquefied natural gas trade.
Although international maritime authorities say commercial traffic continues to pass through the waterway, heightened tensions have already slowed tanker movements, increasing transport costs and the risk of delays to fuel deliveries.
Airfares unlikely to fall soon
Jet fuel prices have fallen significantly from their March highs, offering some relief to airlines.
However, analysts believe passengers are unlikely to see cheaper airfares in the near future because strong travel demand, limited seat availability and continued uncertainty over fuel supplies are keeping costs elevated.
Possible impact on Cyprus
Cyprus is not currently facing any fuel shortages, but its location in the eastern Mediterranean makes it particularly vulnerable to developments in the Middle East.
If the crisis intensifies or tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is seriously disrupted, Cyprus could face indirect consequences, including:
- Higher aviation fuel procurement costs at Larnaca and Paphos airports.
- Increased operating costs for airlines serving Cyprus.
- Higher airfares, particularly on long-haul routes.
- Flight delays or schedule adjustments caused by supply chain disruptions.
The wider Cypriot economy, which depends heavily on tourism and air travel, could also come under additional pressure if energy uncertainty persists through the peak holiday season.
For now, the European Commission maintains that the market remains functional and says coordinated releases of strategic fuel reserves remain available if required to safeguard air transport.
Also read: Cyprus’ travel trends favour Europe amid rising costs
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