About this Summary
This summary was created with the help of artificial intelligence (AI) to help readers quickly understand the key points of the article.
It has been reviewed by our editorial team before publication. For complete information and full details, please read the full article.
- Higher jet fuel costs have been the main driver of the recent fare increases.
- Low-cost carriers on intra-European Economy routes posted the largest rise, with average one-way fares up 15.35% from February to May 2026.
- Transatlantic Economy fares also increased, reaching $649.18 for major European carriers and 20.18% above pre-war levels.
- Airlines are reducing capacity and may raise fares further, especially in Europe and Economy Class, as they try to recover fuel costs.
Air ticket prices have risen sharply in recent months as airlines test how far they can raise fares without significantly reducing demand, according to an analysis by aviation data company Cirium for Handelsblatt.
The increases have been driven mainly by higher jet fuel costs, with airlines attempting to determine how much of the additional expense consumers are willing to absorb.
Cirium analysed average monthly air ticket prices since the start of the war in Iran at the end of February. Prices were converted into US dollars for comparison, with taxes and fees excluded to show the portion of fares received by airlines.
The analysis examined three groups: European airline groups Lufthansa, IAG and Air France-KLM; low-cost carriers Ryanair, EasyJet and Wizz Air; and US airlines United Airlines, Delta Air Lines and American Airlines.
For intra-European Economy flights, low-cost carriers recorded the biggest increase.
In February 2026, passengers paid an average of $73.14 for a one-way ticket. By May, the average had risen to $84.37, an increase of 15.35% in just three months.
The increases had begun earlier. Compared with May 2025, fares at Ryanair, EasyJet and Wizz Air were up 39.20%, while prices had more than doubled since the beginning of 2024.
The major European airline groups also increased Economy fares on European routes, but at a slower pace. By May, prices were 7.22% higher than in February, 10.26% higher than a year earlier and 48.41% above early-2024 levels.
Transatlantic Economy fares rise
Higher air ticket prices are also being recorded on transatlantic Economy flights to the US.
The three major European airline groups were charging an average of $649.18, 20.18% more than immediately before the start of the war in Iran.
The three major US carriers recorded a similar increase of 22.33%.
Business Class fares, however, have changed little. Since the start of the conflict in the Middle East, prices charged by both European and US airlines have actually fallen slightly.
Why Economy passengers are paying more
The data suggest airlines are seeking to offset higher costs mainly through European routes and Economy Class.
According to Handelsblatt, premium fares are significantly more profitable than short-haul fares, giving airlines greater scope to absorb higher costs without immediately passing them on to passengers.
Demand for premium seats on Europe-US routes also remains strong, although competition on these routes is intense.
Airlines therefore face a balancing act, as excessive price increases could drive customers away from an important source of revenue.
Lufthansa cuts North America capacity
Airlines are also carefully managing capacity to protect profitability.
Lufthansa, for example, cut capacity on North American routes by 5.3% in the second quarter, measured by available seat kilometres.
The reduced supply helped increase average revenue on those routes by 1.7%.
The strategy could also support air ticket prices during the second half of the year by limiting the number of seats available.
Fuel costs are not fully covered yet
At first glance, the fare increases might suggest airlines have already offset, or even exceeded, their additional fuel costs.
Ryanair, for example, paid €232.5 million more for fuel during the first quarter of its financial year, from April to June, compared with the same period a year earlier. It carried 61.3 million passengers during that period.
That amounts to an additional fuel cost of about €3.79 per passenger.
However, the average fare recorded by low-cost carriers in May 2026 was about €20.50 higher than in May 2025.
The comparison does not tell the whole story because Cirium’s monthly averages cover tickets sold during each month. Many passengers travelling now bought their tickets before the war in Iran began, when fares were lower.
Airlines cannot increase the price of those existing bookings retrospectively.
Airlines prepare for further increases
Early bookings at lower fares have contributed to weaker financial results among European airlines during the second quarter.
Lufthansa said it had recovered about 60% of its additional fuel costs through higher fares. IAG reported a similar figure.
Air France-KLM had also expected to recover around 60%, but ultimately covered about 85% of the additional cost, helped by higher average revenues.
Airlines are now expected to pursue further fare increases during the second half of the year.
IAG, Air France-KLM and Lufthansa have already reduced capacity in their flight schedules for the second half of 2026, with tighter supply expected to support higher fares.
For travellers, the outlook points to further increases. Even if the situation in the Middle East improves, airlines are expected to keep fares elevated as they seek to recover losses accumulated earlier in the year.
Passengers travelling within Europe, those flying Economy and travellers booking at the last minute are likely to feel the biggest impact.
Also read: How Cyprus banks are pricing in Middle East war risks
For more videos and updates, check out our YouTube channel
