The United States expressed cautious optimism on Thursday that ongoing Iran peace talks could lead to a breakthrough agreement and prevent a return to war, as Washington awaits the arrival of a Pakistani mediator in Tehran.
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Pakistan was expected to travel to Tehran on Friday in an effort to move negotiations forward.
“I believe the Pakistanis are going to Tehran tomorrow. We hope this will allow things to progress,” Rubio said before departing for Sweden to attend a NATO summit.
Rubio also referred to progress in indirect discussions between Washington and Tehran, while US President Donald Trump warned a day earlier that the situation remained “on the edge” between a deal and renewed hostilities.
Pakistan steps up mediation efforts
According to Iranian media, including ISNA, Pakistan’s powerful army chief Asim Munir is expected in Tehran to continue talks with Iranian officials. Islamabad has not officially confirmed the visit.
Pakistan has intensified its diplomatic efforts in recent days. Interior Minister Mohsin Naqvi travelled twice to Tehran within days to deliver the latest US proposal, which Iranian officials confirmed they are reviewing.
However, the Islamic Republic continues to insist on key demands, including the release of frozen Iranian assets abroad and an end to the US blockade on Iranian ports. Tehran also reiterated that it would “never” submit to intimidation.
Iran’s Revolutionary Guards warned that if war resumes, it would spread “far beyond the region”.
Fragile ceasefire remains under pressure
Since the fragile ceasefire announced on 8 April after more than a month of war, negotiations have largely stalled as both sides maintain firm positions and exchange threats.
The only direct meeting between delegations on 11 April in Islamabad ended without progress.
The conflict, which erupted after US and Israeli strikes against Tehran on 28 February, has killed thousands, mainly in Iran and Lebanon, where Hezbollah remains active.
Nine people were injured on Thursday in a strike on a hospital in Tebnine in southern Lebanon, according to authorities in Beirut.
Trump said a deal could save “a lot of time, energy and lives” and suggested an agreement could be reached “within days”.
Hormuz tensions raise economic fears
The White House is under pressure to end a conflict that has become increasingly unpopular domestically and is placing a growing strain on the global economy, particularly due to Iran’s closure of the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz.
Under normal conditions, roughly one-fifth of crude oil and liquefied natural gas exports from the Middle East pass through the waterway.
The International Energy Agency warned the oil market could enter a “red zone” with supply shortages by July or August unless the conflict is permanently resolved.
Meanwhile, reports in US media pointed to tensions between Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu following a reportedly difficult phone call earlier this week.
Analysts say Israel seeks the overthrow of the Islamic Republic, while Washington’s main priority remains preventing Tehran from acquiring nuclear weapons, even if that means reaching a deal with the current regime.
Iran moves to tighten control of Hormuz
Iran this week formally established a new authority tasked with supervising the Strait of Hormuz and potentially collecting transit tolls.
The newly created “Persian Gulf Strait Authority” also claimed a control zone extending towards waters south of the UAE port of Fujairah, a key part of Abu Dhabi’s strategy to bypass the strait.
A senior adviser to the UAE president, Anwar Gargash, dismissed Iran’s plans as “fantasies” and accused Tehran of trying to impose a new reality in the region.
The UAE also announced a new support package worth more than €350 million for several domestic companies affected by the conflict.
The economic fallout is also affecting Europe, with the European Commission revising down growth forecasts for the 21 eurozone countries.
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