A new opinion poll suggests that Tufan Erhürman, leader of the Republican Turkish Party (CTP), is on course for an easy victory in the upcoming illegal elections in the occupied areas.
The survey was carried out in September 2025 by the Centre for Migration, Identity and Rights Studies (CMIRS) and republished by Turkish Cypriot media. It shows the CTP consolidating its position as the leading political force in the breakaway entity.
If general elections were held now, the CTP would secure 42.25% of the vote, well ahead of the National Unity Party (UBP) on 34.21%. The Rebirth Party (YDP) polled at 4.63%, while both the Democratic Party (DP) and the Communal Democracy Party (TDP) scored 4.23%. The People’s Party (HP) was at 2.82%, with 3.22% undecided and 1.41% planning to abstain.
According to the poll, once undecided voters are distributed, the CTP could potentially form a “government” alone, with only UBP and YDP passing the electoral threshold.
For the “presidential” contest, Erhürman held a decisive lead with 50.40% support in the first round, more than 10 points ahead of likely rivals. This suggests he would enter the illegal elections with a strong advantage.
Commenting on the findings, CMIRS director Mine Yücel said: “The fact that the CTP is clearly ahead in political preferences and that Tufan Erhürman is seen as advantaged in the presidential race reflects a lack of confidence in the current leadership and a growing expectation for change.”
The quarterly CMIRS survey also measured attitudes on political trust, social trust, self-esteem and happiness among Turkish Cypriots.
Also read: Palmas: We don’t seek permission from Turkish invaders
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