European airfares could rise by up to 20% in 2027, Ryanair chief executive Michael O’Leary has warned, as the war in the Middle East drives up oil prices and increases airlines’ fuel costs.
Speaking at a press conference in Brussels on Tuesday, 20 October, O’Leary predicted that Europe could face its biggest-ever increase in ticket prices over the next 12 months. He questioned whether higher fares and additional fuel charges would be enough to offset the rising costs.
“In my view, we will see the biggest increase in air fares in the history of Europe over the next 12 months,” he said. He added that he did not believe the increases would fully cover the sharp rise in fuel costs.
Airlines face higher fuel costs and limited protection
O’Leary said most European airlines, including Ryanair, had not secured sufficient fuel-price hedging for 2027 to protect themselves against further increases in oil prices.
Airlines are also facing pressure from higher taxes and reduced capacity as some operators struggle financially. O’Leary expects the European aviation market to become increasingly concentrated among fewer airlines as weaker competitors find it harder to survive.
He criticised regulatory policies in countries including France and Belgium, where Ryanair plans to reduce its presence because of higher taxation.
Airlines worldwide have faced a sharp rise in jet fuel costs since the war involving Iran escalated, while higher travel expenses have also put pressure on consumer demand.
In September, Ryanair lowered its passenger target for the current financial year and announced plans to reduce the number of seats available during the winter season, when travel demand is traditionally weaker.
O’Leary attacks EU leadership over aviation policy
Alongside his warning about fares, O’Leary launched a personal attack on European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, calling her “useless” and accusing her of talking about European competitiveness without taking effective action to improve it.
In an interview with Euronews, he also criticised the European Parliament for introducing regulations that he argued increase the cost of air travel, despite consumers wanting cheaper tickets.
O’Leary was particularly critical of EU environmental charges affecting flights within the bloc. He argued that European airlines face costs that their American, Asian and Chinese competitors do not face to the same extent.
“If you take competitiveness seriously, tax the Americans when they land in Europe,” he said.
Long-haul flights account for more than half of aviation emissions
O’Leary argued that the EU’s approach to aviation emissions places European carriers at a disadvantage compared with airlines operating from outside the bloc.
Long-haul flights operated by European and non-European airlines fall under a less stringent United Nations carbon-offsetting system than some shorter flights within Europe.
According to Eurocontrol, long-haul flights account for around 6% of departures but generate more than half of European aviation’s carbon dioxide emissions.
The debate over environmental charges comes as airlines face mounting operating costs and pressure to keep fares competitive. If O’Leary’s forecast proves accurate, passengers travelling across Europe in 2027 could face significantly higher ticket prices.
Also read: Flights from UK to Cyprus forecast to drop by half in January
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