A fluid political landscape and a closely contested first round of the presidential election are emerging from two recent private opinion polls conducted by well-known polling companies.
The results of the two surveys point to several shared conclusions about the political scene and challenge assumptions about any clear frontrunner.
According to both polls, the decisive contest is likely to take place in the first round, particularly within the centre-right and right-wing political space.
Political landscape remains fluid
The first major conclusion is that the political scene remains highly uncertain.
As the final number and identity of the candidates have not yet been determined, responses to the surveys are necessarily based on hypothetical scenarios.
Mavroyiannis appears capable of reaching the second round
Andreas Mavroyiannis, as a potential presidential candidate, appears able to secure a place in the second round.
His momentum, however, weakens in scenarios where ALMA, led by Odysseas Michaelides, contests the election independently.
This is considered logical, as ALMA would likely draw support from the broader opposition vote, which is also the main source of Mavroyiannis’ electoral strength.
Respondents also appear to assume that Mavroyiannis would be the candidate backed by AKEL.
A scenario involving an Odysseas Michaelides candidacy supported by AKEL would also be politically significant, although under current conditions it is considered highly unlikely.
Closely fought battle on the right
The most notable finding is the extremely close contest over which candidate from the right-wing political space could advance to the second round.
In both a Christodoulides–Annita Demetriou scenario and a Christodoulides–Averof Neophytou scenario, the difference between the candidates remains within the statistical margin of error.
In both cases, President Nikos Christodoulides holds a narrow lead.
Another significant finding is that Christodoulides, Demetriou and Neophytou appear to start from almost the same level of support among DISY voters.
This suggests that any of the three could qualify for the second round and potentially face Andreas Mavroyiannis.
Such a scenario could produce an electoral déjà vu, with Christodoulides, Mavroyiannis and Neophytou once again competing in the first round. The question would then be whether the result would be different this time.
Mavroyiannis’ possible candidacy gains ground
Another conclusion is that the possibility of an Andreas Mavroyiannis candidacy is becoming increasingly established in public perception, based on the momentum recorded in the surveys.
This is a development that AKEL will have to assess as it begins shaping its strategy for the presidential election.
Internal DISY contest expected to be tight
The findings also point to a closely contested internal battle within DISY over the party’s presidential nomination.
Annita Demetriou and Averof Neophytou are expected to compete in a highly competitive race.
Christodoulides’ continuing influence among party members could also play an important role and potentially determine the outcome of the internal contest.
Candidate field and public agenda will be decisive
A critical factor will be the final shape of the presidential race—who runs, how many candidates there are and which parties support them.
The public agenda will also matter, including possible developments in the Cyprus issue, the state of the economy and any crises requiring government management.
Political landscape undergoing transformation
Cyprus’ political scene is currently undergoing a broader restructuring.
Through the recent Cabinet reshuffle, President Christodoulides appears to have sought to keep DIKO firmly aligned with his administration until the presidential election.
Those appointed to government positions are expected to remain close to him even if DIKO eventually leaves the governing alliance.
At present, DIKO’s leadership has few political alternatives. Despite party leader Nicolas Papadopoulos’ dissatisfaction with the reshuffle, there is currently no clear political narrative that would justify leaving the government. However, the issue cannot be considered permanently settled.
EDEK, another party supporting the government, is facing its own internal process and an uncertain future, while also expressing dissatisfaction over its reduced role in the latest Cabinet reshuffle.
DIPA has also complained that it was not properly informed. The party lacks a unified position, with Marinos Kleanthous among those most critical of President Christodoulides, although his views do not represent the entire party.
DISY, meanwhile, faces a difficult internal contest both over its presidential nominee and potentially over the party leadership itself.
AKEL is expected to begin its internal presidential election process in September.
ELAM will hold an electoral congress in November, with all presidential election scenarios still open.
ALMA is trying to establish a stronger political presence, although its future intentions remain unclear, while Direct Democracy continues to follow its own political course.
Source: Frixos Dalitis- Phileleutheros
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