Cyprus could see a much wetter start to winter as an exceptionally strong El Niño weather event develops, with seasonal forecasts indicating rainfall could be 20–70% above average between October and December, depending on the area.
Filippos Tymvios, director of the Department of Meteorology, stated that the strongest signal for increased rainfall was expected in October. However, he stressed that the forecast reflects a statistical trend rather than a guarantee of a wet winter.
The developing El Niño is expected to be exceptionally powerful, with international climate agencies warning of its potential impact on global temperatures and weather patterns.
How El Niño affects global weather
El Niño is a climate phenomenon in the Pacific Ocean that occurs when trade winds weaken, allowing warmer surface waters to shift towards the eastern Pacific, off South America.
This changes atmospheric circulation and rainfall patterns, affecting weather across many parts of the world. Its counterpart, La Niña, occurs when trade winds strengthen, pushing warm water towards the western Pacific.
Although El Niño originates in the Pacific, its effects can extend far beyond the region, influencing global temperatures and seasonal weather patterns.
Why this El Niño could be exceptional
The magnitude of the developing event is one reason scientists are closely monitoring it.
According to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), sea-surface temperature anomalies between October and December are forecast to reach around 3.7°C. This would exceed the previous record of 2.6°C recorded between November 2015 and January 2016, according to the figures cited in the report.
Another factor is the expected combination of El Niño with a positive phase of the Indian Ocean Dipole, a climate pattern that influences temperatures and rainfall across the Indian Ocean region.
Tymvios said a study by the Hebrew University of Jerusalem had linked this combination to more frequent Cyprus Lows and increased rainfall in parts of the eastern Mediterranean and the Middle East.
Cyprus Lows are weather systems associated with rainfall in the region. However, the meteorological director stressed that the research indicates a statistical relationship rather than a certainty about the coming winter.
Cyprus could receive up to 70% more rainfall
Analysis of seasonal forecast maps from the Israeli Meteorological Service and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts suggests that Cyprus is likely to experience a wetter start to the period.
For October to December, rainfall could be approximately 20–70% above normal, depending on the area, with the strongest signal in October.
The outlook changes for the following months. Tymvios said precipitation between December and February appears likely to remain close to normal levels, or even slightly below average.
This means the greatest potential impact from increased rainfall may occur in the coming weeks rather than throughout the entire winter.
Global concerns over extreme weather and rising temperatures
Despite the relatively cautious outlook for Cyprus, scientists have warned against underestimating the effects of an exceptionally strong El Niño.
The 1997–98 event was associated with widespread disruption, including the loss of an estimated 16% of the world’s coral reef systems.
A powerful El Niño can contribute to flooding in some regions and drought, wildfire risk and other extreme weather conditions in others.
The WMO has also warned that the event could push global temperatures to new records. Secretary-General Celeste Saulo said El Niño releases heat already stored beneath the ocean’s surface rather than creating additional heat.
With ocean temperatures already at record levels, more heat could be released into the atmosphere, adding to the warming caused by climate change.
Tymvios said the potential effect of El Niño on an already warming atmosphere was a concern, echoing forecasts that 2027 could become the hottest year on record globally.
For Cyprus, however, the immediate outlook remains more measured: the main concern is the possibility of significantly increased rainfall early in the winter, rather than a guarantee of prolonged wet conditions.
Also read: Daylight saving time ends on 25 October
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