Analyst links Eastern Mediterranean tensions to elections in Israel, Greece, Cyprus

Turkish analyst Özay Şendir believes that discussion of a potential military conflict in the Eastern Mediterranean has been exaggerated, largely due to upcoming elections in Israel, Greece and the Republic of Cyprus.

He focuses particularly on the possibility of Greece extending its territorial waters to 12 nautical miles south and west of Crete, arguing that such a move would trigger a reaction from Ankara and have wider international implications.

At the same time, he rejects what he describes as an unrealistic scenario being discussed in some circles in Turkey: a short Greek-Turkish conflict in which Greece, Israel and the Republic of Cyprus would gain the upper hand before forcing Turkey into negotiations from a position of weakness.

Şendir argues that the word “war” is being used far more than it should in the current period.

“The Eastern Mediterranean is going through a period in which the word ‘war’ is being used far too much.

“As long as the elections to be held in Israel in October 2026, in Greece in May 2027 and on the Greek Cypriot side in February 2028 continue, and as long as efforts to win votes focus particularly on scenarios reportedly being discussed in Turkey regarding a possible Greek extension of its territorial waters to 12 nautical miles in areas of Crete that do not face the Aegean, on Turkey continue in all three countries, an unpleasant word such as ‘war’ is being used more than necessary.

“We must be realistic and prepare accordingly.”

12 nautical miles south and west of Crete

Şendir focuses particularly on scenarios reportedly being discussed in Turkey regarding a possible Greek extension of its territorial waters to 12 nautical miles in areas of Crete that do not face the Aegean, namely south and west of the island.

According to Şendir, Ankara would not view such a move simply as Greece exercising a sovereign right, but as an attempt to restrict Turkey’s continental shelf and undermine the Turkish-Libyan memorandum.

“For some time, there has been discussion of a scenario in which Greece, in order to circumvent the Turkey-Libya agreement, would extend its territorial waters to 12 nautical miles south and west of Crete, in areas that do not face the Aegean. Athens knows very well that Ankara will not accept such a step, which would seize Turkey’s rights in its continental shelf in the Eastern Mediterranean and the ‘Blue Homeland’,” he claims.

The Turkish analyst also rejects the assessment that Greece could make such a move under the protection of its defence agreement with France.

He cites the case of the British Channel Islands of Jersey and Guernsey, arguing that France would not want to create a precedent that could later work against it.

Turkey’s objection to the Law of the Sea Convention

Şendir also refers to the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea, which Greece invokes. He argues that Turkey is a “persistent objector” to the convention and that, in his view, this gives Ankara legal room for manoeuvre.

He also cites previous international court cases, arguing that courts have taken the specific circumstances of each dispute into account rather than applying the convention mechanically.

“As for the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea, which Greece presents as international law, first, Turkey has persistently objected to the specific convention, and this provides Ankara with legal rights.”

Şendir further argues that a unilateral extension to 12 nautical miles in the Aegean would have much broader consequences. According to his calculations, it would significantly reduce international waters and affect not only Turkey but also countries that use the Aegean as a commercial route.

“Greece’s unilateral extension of its territorial waters to 12 nautical miles in the Aegean would mean that international waters would be reduced from 49% to 19%, while Greece would increase its territorial waters to 71.5%.

“This would not only result in the Turkish navy being confined to its own shores, but would also concern countries such as Russia, Ukraine, Romania and Bulgaria, which use the Aegean as a commercial route, and would affect all global actors. We do not need to take phrases such as ‘we will definitely use our air superiority’ too seriously.”

‘Greece could be heading for disaster’

Şendir also turns to the Greek political landscape, referring to parties and politicians who, he claims, appear more open to a military confrontation with Turkey.

He mentions Greek Solution, NIKI and Spartans, as well as centre-right political figures such as Antonis Samaras and Kostas Karamanlis.

According to Şendir, there are also circles in Turkey that would prefer a government in Athens more focused on military confrontation rather than the government of Kyriakos Mitsotakis.

“In Turkey, there are also those who want scenarios in which, instead of Mitsotakis, these figures would become prime minister or a far-right coalition partner, so that the problem could be resolved once and for all instead of through lengthy negotiations.

“Since even if we go to war, in the end we will have to sit down and reach an agreement, no one seems to understand that the mentality in Athens that cannot accept an agreement without fighting is leading to the destruction not of Turkey, but of Greece.”

A short conflict

Şendir makes particular reference to cooperation between Israel, Greece and the Republic of Cyprus.

He says one of the scenarios being discussed in Turkey envisages the three countries seeking a short conflict in which they would gain a military advantage before entering a ceasefire under international pressure from a position of strength.

He considers this scenario unrealistic.

“As for the statements being made about the alliance between Israel, Greece and the Greek Cypriot side:

“The scenario I hear most often is that this trio intends to gain the upper hand in a conflict that would last a short time and then sit at the ceasefire table that would emerge under international pressure from a position of advantage.”

He adds:

“I do not think there is a single government official in these capitals who believes this scenario. It would be absurd to believe that, after a conflict that ended with the likely superiority of the other side, Turkey would stop. The other capitals also know that, given Turkey’s military strength, the alliances in which it participates and the lessons provided by history, Ankara will not stop; it cannot stop…”

‘Christodoulides can neither make war nor peace’

Şendir also downplays the role of Republic of Cyprus President Nikos Christodoulides in Eastern Mediterranean scenarios.

He describes him as “a man of a plan” and refers to his education in the United States, as well as his political relationships in Cyprus and Greece. He also mentions cases involving his family environment and the resignations of individuals linked to the presidency.

He concludes that Christodoulides does not have the autonomy to determine a military or peaceful outcome on his own.

“Christodoulides cannot start a war on his own, nor can he make peace. Therefore, in the scenarios concerning the Eastern Mediterranean, he is not someone who should be given particular emphasis.”

‘The rope must be stretched, but not until it breaks’

Concluding his analysis, Şendir says it is expected that provocative messages will be heard from both Athens and Turkey during election periods. He warns, however, that the more governments invest politically in hard-line rhetoric, the greater the risk that a controlled show of determination could develop into a real crisis.

He also notes that there is a significant section of Turkish society that could favour a more confrontational Greek leadership.

“Today, around two million people from Turkey travel to Greece, but on the streets tens of millions of people are also thinking: ‘I wish someone more adventurous than Mitsotakis would come to power, so that we can do what needs to be done.’

“Let us not forget that elections are also held in Turkey, and that Turkey also has public opinion. That is why the rope must be stretched enough, but not until it breaks.”

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