Airlines brace for turbulent season
The fuel crisis is expected to disrupt summer travel across Europe, even if the conflict in the Middle East ends soon, according to an analysis by Politico.
Airlines and passengers are preparing for high ticket prices and mounting pressure on profitability, as disruptions to fuel transport through the Strait of Hormuz continue to impact supply chains.
Europe produces only around 70% of the jet fuel it needs, leaving the sector vulnerable to prolonged disruptions in shipments from Gulf countries.
Scenario one: Quick end but slow recovery
In the best-case scenario, a rapid end to the conflict and reopening of the Strait of Hormuz would ease pressure, but not immediately resolve the aviation fuel crisis.
Industry experts warn it could take months for supply levels to normalise, as tankers require time to reach Europe.
While widespread flight cancellations may be avoided, passengers are still likely to face elevated ticket prices throughout the summer.
Scenario two: Partial recovery and instability
The most likely scenario involves partial de-escalation, with fuel supplies remaining unstable. In this case, the aviation fuel crisis would continue to drive high costs and uncertainty.
Airlines may cancel less profitable routes, particularly long-haul leisure flights and regional connections, while prioritising more lucrative services.
Some airports could also face periodic fuel constraints, adding further disruption to schedules.
Industry figures warn that rising costs will be passed on to passengers, with fewer deals and reduced flight frequency expected.
Scenario three: Prolonged crisis and shortages
In the worst-case scenario, continued disruption in the Strait of Hormuz could push Europe into a full aviation fuel crisis, with supplies falling below operational thresholds.
This could lead to the rationing of jet fuel and widespread flight cancellations, significantly impacting both airlines and travellers.
Experts warn that such a situation would create a dual crisis of high prices and physical shortages, affecting not only Europe but also parts of Asia reliant on Middle Eastern oil.
Pressure on airlines and airports
The aviation fuel crisis is already forcing airlines to cut capacity and reassess operations. Some carriers have announced significant flight reductions to manage fuel consumption.
Airports are also under pressure, as they manage fuel logistics without direct control over supply.
EU officials are preparing contingency plans, including the potential sharing of strategic fuel reserves among member states if shortages worsen.
Risk to low-cost travel model
Analysts warn that the aviation fuel crisis could particularly impact low-cost airlines, which rely on high aircraft utilisation and price-sensitive demand.
If cancellations exceed a critical threshold, the financial impact could spread across the aviation sector, affecting airlines, airports and air traffic control providers alike.
Also read: Cyprus tourism: 40% decrease in April hotel occupancy in Ayia Napa
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