An anonymous cryptocurrency gambler netted over $436,000 on Polymarket by betting $32,537 that Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro would be out of power by January’s end, just hours before Donald Trump announced the US operation capturing him.
The account, created last month with a blockchain identifier, took four Venezuela-focused positions as odds shifted dramatically from 6.5% on Friday afternoon to 11% near midnight, then surged early Saturday. This timing raises suspicions of profiting from inside knowledge of the Saturday abduction.
Betting timeline and windfall
Polymarket data reveals traders dramatically adjusted positions pre-announcement on Trump’s Truth Social post confirming Maduro’s custody. The new account’s sole focus on Venezuela amplified questions, with a handful of others earning tens of thousands similarly.
Prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi have boomed, drawing hundreds of millions on 2024 US election outcomes amid lighter Trump-era regulation versus Biden scrutiny.
Dennis Kelleher of Better Markets called it “all the hallmarks of a trade based on inside information.”
Regulatory and political response
Congressman Ritchie Torres (D-NY) introduced a bill Monday banning government employees from prediction market trades using material nonpublic information. Donald Trump advises Kalshi and Polymarket, highlighting industry ties. Kalshi prohibits insider trading, including by officials on government matters, though stock-like rules remain looser here.
Polymarket has not commented.
Broader context
The bet coincides with Maduro’s New York court appearance on narcoterrorism charges post-abduction, amid Venezuela’s oil stakes. Prediction platforms surged in US popularity for sports, politics betting, facing fewer insider trading regs than stocks.
Source: BBC
Also read: How Nicolas Maduro’s arrest turned Nike into a viral talking point
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