The ongoing war appears to be gradually reshaping the regional map, with potential “readjustments” of borders and the emergence of new alliances already underway. This evolving landscape is being formed amid military conflict and is expected to extend into the post-war period.
It is clear that the war involving the U.S. and Israel against Iran is linked to broader efforts to redistribute power, signaling the emergence of a new order shaped by violent confrontation. These developments will have both geopolitical and economic consequences for all countries. Already, the conflict has triggered economic repercussions, and its continuation poses a threat to the global economy.
Cyprus, due to its geographic proximity, is directly affected by these developments. Current trends include:
- The imposition of control through force rather than diplomacy
- A conflict defined by dominance and survival as a prevailing method
- A prolonged crisis exerting pressure on energy markets and global economies
Discussions have already begun about the “day after,” particularly regarding who will dominate the region and what role smaller or militarily weaker states will play. Gulf Arab states have strengthened communication channels with Israel, especially after facing Iranian missile attacks. Talks around the Abraham Accords had stalled after Hamas’ attack but may now be reconsidered under new conditions.
Israel’s expansionist tendencies remain evident. In Lebanon, border realities are already shifting, with Israeli incursions creating what it calls a “security zone,” alongside destruction and population displacement. Similar developments cannot be ruled out in Syria and elsewhere.
The United States
Donald Trump is said to have entered the conflict without a clear strategy, influenced in part by Israeli leadership. Analysts, including Nikos Kotzias, argue that Trump views international relations as a zero-sum game, where gains must come at others’ expense.
U.S. actions must also be seen in the broader context of geopolitical competition, particularly with China.
Iran’s Resilience
Iran, employing a strategy of disruption, has sought to destabilize the region through strikes. While this may cost it alliances, it has managed to create global economic ripple effects, particularly through its influence over the Strait of Hormuz. Despite sustained attacks, Iran continues to endure and retaliate, something Israel may not have fully anticipated.
Turkey’s Role
Turkey is actively maneuvering diplomatically while maintaining distance from direct involvement in the conflict. It is seeking an enhanced role, particularly among Gulf states, though trust in Ankara remains limited.
Ankara appears to be positioning itself to fill any vacuum left by a weakened Iran, aiming to become a dominant regional power. This raises concerns among neighboring countries and could even lead to a future confrontation between Turkey and Israel, a scenario that would directly affect Cyprus.
Turkey’s strategy resembles its traditional stance as a “calculated neutral,” while simultaneously advancing broader ambitions across the Eastern Mediterranean, Africa, the Balkans, and the Caucasus.
Notably, Donald Trump has not reacted strongly to Turkey’s position, likely due to his favorable relationship with Recep Tayyip Erdoğan.
Cyprus’ Diplomatic Moves
The Republic of Cyprus remains active diplomatically, maintaining communication channels with regional states and leveraging its EU membership. Its current EU Council presidency is also being utilized strategically.
Nikos Christodoulides is set to visit Cairo following an invitation from Egypt’s president, with discussions focusing on regional developments and energy issues. Cyprus is also strengthening ties with Gulf countries, following visits by Foreign Minister Constantinos Kombos.
Regional leaders have been invited to attend an informal EU Council meeting in Cyprus, reinforcing Nicosia’s role as a bridge between the EU and the region.
At the same time, increased security cooperation with European partners is creating new prospects for long-term defense collaboration.
The Cyprus Issue
The war has pushed other international issues, including the Cyprus problem, into the background. Still, efforts continue at a slower pace.
António Guterres is reportedly preparing a final initiative on Cyprus before leaving office, expected to unfold over the summer and culminate in September at the UN General Assembly in New York.
Cyprus has expressed readiness to engage in negotiations, with President Christodoulides requesting a new meeting with Turkish Cypriot leader Tufan Erhürman.
However, the Turkish side appears to be delaying progress, even on confidence-building measures. Ankara continues to push for a two-state solution, rejecting the federal model and insisting on recognition of “sovereign equality,” while also maintaining its stance on security guarantees.
Source: Costas Venizelos- Phileleutheros
Also read: Middle-East crisis boosts government ratings
