Europe has made significant strides in reducing its reliance on Russian natural gas since 2021. According to data published by the European Council, Russia’s share of EU gas imports has fallen sharply, replaced by increased supplies of liquefied natural gas (LNG) and higher pipeline deliveries from countries such as Norway, the United States, Algeria, Qatar, the United Kingdom and Azerbaijan.
This rapid adjustment demonstrated Europe’s political resolve, market flexibility and institutional capacity. LNG terminals were expanded, supply contracts diversified, and emergency mechanisms put in place. Yet while LNG proved vital in managing the crisis, it cannot by itself provide a durable solution to Europe’s long-term energy security challenge.
LNG is flexibility, not a full strategy
LNG offers adaptability and crisis resilience, allowing cargoes to be redirected when supply disruptions occur. However, it is inherently exposed to global price volatility and competition from Asian markets. For Europe to move from crisis management to long-term system design, it still needs stable, scalable, non-Russian pipeline gas supplies that are economically viable and politically diversified.
From this perspective, one potential supplier stands out: Turkmenistan.
Turkmenistan’s untapped potential
Turkmenistan holds the world’s fourth-largest proven natural gas reserves, anchored by the giant Galkynysh field. Despite this abundance, Turkmen gas has historically struggled to reach European markets, not because of cost or technical constraints, but due to infrastructure bottlenecks and geopolitics.
Senior economists at the International Monetary Fund have repeatedly noted that Turkmen gas exports westward were constrained by transit access rather than commercial logic. In the early 2000s, Gazprom’s control over westbound pipeline infrastructure effectively excluded Turkmenistan from Europe, forcing it to redirect exports eastward, primarily to China.
Today, Europe’s priorities have changed. The search for reliable, non-Russian pipeline supply has returned to the top of the agenda.
The missing link is delivery, not demand
Europe already has key pieces of the puzzle. Azerbaijan has established itself as a dependable supplier and transit country. Turkey has consolidated its position as a regional energy hub, deeply interconnected with European gas markets. The remaining challenge is not technical feasibility, but the absence -until recently- of sustained political backing and coordinated investment leadership.
Previous attempts focused almost exclusively on a single “mega-project”: a Trans-Caspian pipeline linking Turkmenistan to Azerbaijan across the Caspian Sea, and onward through Turkey into Europe via the Southern Gas Corridor. Despite decades of discussion, this project never materialised.
A phased and pragmatic pathway west
The strategic landscape today allows for a more flexible, layered approach:
- Integration with existing infrastructure
Turkmen gas could begin flowing west by feeding into the Southern Gas Corridor through Azerbaijan and Turkey. Capacity optimisation and phased expansion would allow early volumes to reach the market while larger infrastructure is developed. - Swap mechanisms as an interim solution
Gas swaps offer a practical workaround. Under such arrangements, Turkmen gas could be delivered regionally while equivalent volumes are released to Turkey and, indirectly, to Europe. These mechanisms enable modest but meaningful flows without immediate new construction. - A Turkey-first strategy
Recent agreements between Turkmenistan and Turkey signal the start of direct deliveries using existing routes, including swaps. While initial volumes may serve the Turkish market, Turkey’s deep interconnection with the EU means these flows create a commercial and operational foundation for future European supply. - Diplomatic and institutional alignment
Energy diplomacy among Turkmenistan, Azerbaijan and Turkey is laying essential groundwork. Memorandums of understanding and political coordination reduce sovereign risk, align regulatory frameworks and make long-term capital investment more feasible.
Completing Europe’s energy security architecture
Taken together, these options form a realistic, phased strategy for strengthening Europe’s long-term energy security. Rather than waiting for a single, perfect infrastructure solution, Turkmen gas can begin moving west through multiple complementary routes, scaling up over time.
The reality is simple: gas flows where politics and infrastructure allow it to flow. Europe now has both the incentive and the leverage to support a westbound pathway for Turkmen gas. Turkmenistan has the reserves; Azerbaijan and Turkey provide the geography. What is still required is an integrated political and investment framework, one built on flexibility, phased execution and strategic patience.
Until such a framework is fully realised, Europe’s energy security will remain incomplete. Bringing Turkmen gas to the European market via pipelines would not only diversify supply, but also mark a decisive step from short-term crisis response towards long-term strategic resilience.
