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- Turkey responded to Greece’s maritime spatial plans with three Foreign Ministry statements and later declared two marine parks beyond its territorial waters.
- Kalenteridis said Greece’s plans include 152 islands whose sovereignty Turkey disputes, prompting diplomatic protests from both sides.
- He said Turkish drone flights and violations have increased, especially over the Northern Aegean marine park, heightening tensions further.
- Kalenteridis said Greece has a strategic weapons advantage, while the GSI cable and Blue Homeland legislation could determine whether relations ease or worsen.
Greece-Turkey tensions are increasing, according to geostrategic analyst Savvas Kalenteridis, who said the electricity interconnection cable and Turkey’s proposed “Blue Homeland” legislation could play a critical role in the next phase of bilateral relations.
Speaking to the Cyprus News Agency (CNA), Kalenteridis said Turkey had intensified its rhetoric following a series of moves by Greece in the field.
Rising rhetoric on both sides
Kalenteridis said Turkey had issued three Foreign Ministry statements in response to Greece’s publication of maritime spatial plans.
Turkey subsequently declared two marine parks extending beyond its territorial waters, which Kalenteridis described as a response to Greece’s two marine parks and its spatial planning.
He said the Greek plans also include 152 islands whose Greek sovereignty Turkey disputes.
After reviewing the maps and other material, Greece responded with a strong diplomatic protest over Turkey’s marine parks, Kalenteridis said. Turkey then lodged its own protest over Greece’s three spatial plans.
He added that Turkey had taken further steps, including an increase in violations and flights by Turkish unmanned aircraft, particularly over the Northern Aegean marine park.
“This has raised tensions,” he said.
Kalenteridis also pointed to a change in the rhetoric of the Greek government, including that of the Greek prime minister and foreign minister.
He said some observers view the change as a response to Turkish actions, while others in Athens link it partly to the approaching election period in Greece.
Analyst says Greece has strategic advantage
Asked whether Greece currently holds a position of strength against Turkey, Kalenteridis said he believed Greece was in a better position in terms of strategic weapons.
“I am not talking about quantitative weapons, I am not talking about drones, I am talking about strategic weapons,” he clarified.
Regarding the Greece-Israel agreement on the “Achilles Shield”, Kalenteridis said the system gives Greece an advantage at both operational and geopolitical levels.
Operationally, he said, it can address missile, air and drone threats.
At a geopolitical level, he said the Greek defence dome connects with the National Guard’s defence system in Cyprus and Israel’s system, with interoperability between them.
GSI cable seen as key factor
Kalenteridis said Turkey views this arrangement as a form of encirclement because it could create a secure corridor for the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC), which Turkey wants to undermine.
He added that Turkey considers the Greece-Cyprus electricity interconnection, known as the Great Sea Interconnector (GSI), to be part of IMEC.
The cable could therefore play a critical role in determining whether Greece-Turkey tensions ease or worsen, Kalenteridis said.
He suggested that a solution may have been found that addresses some of Turkey’s concerns over the project.
“Blue Homeland” bill could change relations
Kalenteridis also identified Turkey’s planned legislation on the “Blue Homeland” doctrine as another key factor.
He described the concept as “blue schizophrenia”, arguing that the proposed bill would create a new area in which Greek-Turkish relations could develop.
According to Kalenteridis, the legislation would assign missions and responsibilities to various Turkish ministries.
He warned that if Turkish state agencies attempt to implement those responsibilities across the extensive area covered by the “Blue Homeland” map, Greece would have to respond on the ground.
“That will be a continuous scene of tension and we cannot say from now where it could end,” he said.
He concluded that the bill “could change everything” in Greek-Turkish relations.
Also read: Israeli defence firms eye Cyprus production sites to access €150bn SAFE fund
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