US President Donald Trump may have found a potential exit, hinting this week that the war against Iran could end “soon.” However, the rest of the world remains unsure whether he will follow through or if Tehran will permit such an outcome.
The surge in oil prices threatens the global economy and Trump’s political future, possibly explaining his shift on Monday, describing the “short-term campaign” as likely to “end soon.” Despite this, the President continues to send mixed signals about both the conflict’s duration and its objectives.
Decisions are complicated by the upcoming midterm elections in November, where voters – particularly Republicans – could punish their Congressional representatives for rising fuel prices and overall cost of living. Polls indicate American support for the war has fallen to historic lows.
Political analyst Colin Clarke, director of the Soufan Center in New York, told Agence France-Presse that Trump “will continue until his advisers indicate the economic cost threatens” his party with a severe loss in the elections. Clarke added that the President must make a “political decision for a military operation.”
Observers note that Trump’s comments about a “short” conflict reinforce the TACO phenomenon – an acronym for “Trump Always Chickens Out.”
Trump’s exit strategy and market reactions
Financial Times journalist Robert Armstrong, who coined the term TACO, said the core message of the President’s statements, pleasing the markets, “was that Trump is looking for the exit door.”
In the early days of US and Israeli airstrikes, from 28 February, Trump suggested the war could last four to five weeks. Markets, gripped by panic earlier on Monday, recovered the same day after he implied it could end much sooner.
US Secretary of Defence Pete Hegseth emphasised that only Trump determines the timeline. “It is not up to me to say whether we are at the beginning, middle, or end,” he insisted.
Clarke estimates that Trump will maintain a hard line “for at most two weeks, then the situation will be so confused that he will declare victory.”
Multiple objectives cited
Trump and his advisers have cited various goals for US involvement, ranging from regime change in Iran to ensuring secure oil transport from the Gulf to international markets.
The President has also outlined military objectives: preventing Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons (which Tehran denies ever intending), destroying its missiles and navy, and further weakening regional allies. Achieving these objectives could allow Trump to claim victory, yet Tehran would likely interpret such claims as weakness.
Tehran escalates threats
Despite heavy damage from US and Israeli airstrikes, Iran has hardened its stance, threatening to paralyse Gulf oil exports and mocking Trump’s assurance that he controls the timeline.
“We are the ones who will decide when the war ends,” declared the Revolutionary Guards. Ali Larijani, head of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, even personally threatened Trump: “Be careful not to be eliminated yourself!”
Israel pursues its own war objectives, creating visible divergences with Washington regarding long-term aims, including Israeli strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure.
While Trump insists he must influence Iran’s new leadership, there is currently no sign of strong or widespread domestic opposition to the newly appointed Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, who replaced his father killed in the opening hours of the conflict.
Potential consequences
If the Iranian government survives, Operation “Epic Wrath” will go down as “the mother of all lawnmowers,” achieving little beyond surface-level damage, sarcastically noted Walter Russell Mead in the Wall Street Journal.
Observers warn the situation could become even more dangerous if the war destabilises Iran’s weakened power structures, potentially triggering a race to acquire nuclear weapons.
“Whether it’s Khamenei’s son or another hardliner, what’s the difference?” Clarke asked. Iran now resembles a “wounded animal, which is undeniably more dangerous,” he concluded.
Also read: Iran war day 12: ‘Most violent attack yet’
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