The rapid developments that led to the overthrow of Bashar al-Assad have created a vacuum for regional power competition, as the transitional period in Damascus significantly impacts the balance of power in the area. Turkey, which has long invested in the Syrian crisis, appears to benefit, placing the new regime under its “protection.” However, Turkey’s involvement is driven by more than humanitarian concerns or ensuring democratic stability in its neighbouring country.
Beyond the Kurdish issue, statements by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan reveal the philosophy and vision behind his moves in Syria. Speaking in Ankara, he stated: “We cannot limit our horizons to 782,000 square kilometres. Just as a person cannot escape their fate, neither Turkey nor the Turkish nation can avoid or hide from theirs… Every event in our region, especially in Syria, reminds us of this fact: Turkey is greater than Turkey.”
Erdoğan’s vision for a “New Turkey” is rooted in neo-Ottoman ideology, aiming to expand Turkey’s influence and establish it as a dominant regional power. While this has been attempted in the Caucasus and the Black Sea, it is evident that Turkey will not miss the opportunity presented by Syria.
This approach not only alarms Gulf countries but also Israel, which does not want a Sunni regime with extremist tendencies supported militarily by Turkey near its borders. Ankara, which has become a fierce critic of Israel in recent months, seeks to control Syria politically, economically, and militarily, while also extending its influence to Lebanon, heightening Israel’s sense of encirclement.
Anti-Israeli rhetoric from Ankara has intensified recently. During a speech in Mardin, Erdoğan responded to chants calling for action in Jerusalem, stating: “Do not forget! Patience brings victory!” Meanwhile, Devlet Bahçeli, Erdoğan’s coalition partner, escalated tensions further, referencing Ottoman history and asserting: “Anyone who turns their eyes towards Damascus will face the Ottoman slap in Tel Aviv and Jerusalem.”
Israel welcomed Assad’s removal, despite hostile relations due to his ties with Iran. Analysts suggest Israel preferred dealing with the “devil it knew.” Over the years, Israel waged a silent war against Assad’s regime, conducting numerous airstrikes targeting Iranian Revolutionary Guard personnel, weapons depots, and military assets to prevent them from falling into hostile hands.
Following Assad’s removal, Israel secured the buffer zone in the Golan Heights and the western side of Mount Hermon, creating a safety zone just kilometres from Damascus. Israel remains steadfast in preventing any new threats to its security from Syrian soil and views Turkey’s moves in Syria with great suspicion and concern.
Turkish analysts caution that Israel, having neutralised Iranian presence in Syria, has little justification for further strikes. They warn that continued attacks may provoke a confrontation with Turkey, which presents itself as the guarantor of the new regime in Damascus and has not ruled out military support to solidify its control.
Such a confrontation would be deeply concerning, potentially pitting the US’s closest ally in the Middle East against NATO’s second-strongest power. A key issue could arise if Turkey decides to arm the new Syrian regime, crossing Israel’s red line. Until Israel has security guarantees, it will not allow arms to flow to groups it previously deemed extremists.
The 20th of January, marking Donald Trump’s assumption of office, is seen as a pivotal date. His policies could clarify intentions and potentially foster indirect coordination between Ankara and Tel Aviv to avert a direct conflict. Meanwhile, Israel remains attentive to developments in northeast Syria, where it has supported Kurdish groups for years.
A direct Turkish military intervention in Syria would shift regional security dynamics, potentially destabilising conditions to Israel’s detriment. This remains Israel’s ultimate red line, raising questions about whether the new US president can prevent such a dangerous confrontation.
Also read: What comes next for Syria’s future?
Source: Liberal.gr (N.M)
