Saudi Arabia is facing mounting pressure as the Iran conflict intensifies, forcing the Kingdom to decide whether to escalate military action or pursue de-escalation amid growing regional instability.
Since the United States and Israel launched military operations against Iran on 28 February, Saudi Arabia has largely sought to avoid direct involvement. However, after coming under repeated attacks from Iranian-backed groups, Riyadh has begun taking a more active military role.
This week, Saudi Arabia carried out joint strikes with the United States against Iran-backed Popular Mobilisation Forces (PMF) in Iraq, accusing the group of launching dozens of drone attacks against the Kingdom.
Iranian-backed groups widen the conflict
The conflict now extends beyond Iran itself and increasingly involves Tehran’s regional allies.
Iran is supported by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), the Houthis in Yemen, the Popular Mobilisation Forces in Iraq and Hezbollah in Lebanon, although Hezbollah has maintained a relatively low profile in recent months.
Opposing them are the United States, its Central Command (CENTCOM), and several regional partners, including Saudi Arabia, Jordan and other Gulf Arab states. Israel remains a close US ally but is not currently taking an active combat role.
Iran has recently focused drone and missile attacks on Jordan, Kuwait and Bahrain while also targeting commercial shipping attempting to navigate the Strait of Hormuz.
Vision 2030 under pressure
Analysts say Saudi Arabia is reluctant to become deeply involved in a prolonged conflict because of its ambitious Vision 2030 economic reform programme.
Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman aims to diversify the Kingdom’s economy away from oil, attract foreign investment and develop sectors including technology, tourism and advanced industries.
However, continued drone and missile attacks threaten critical infrastructure, including energy facilities and future investments such as data centres.
Saudi Arabia remains particularly sensitive after the 2019 attacks on the Abqaiq and Khurais oil facilities, which temporarily disrupted around half of the country’s oil production.
Satellite imagery this week reportedly indicated that Abqaiq was again targeted by drones launched by Iranian-backed militias based in Iraq.
Oil exports face fresh risks
The conflict is also affecting global energy markets.
Following Iranian restrictions in the Strait of Hormuz, Saudi Arabia increased exports through its east-west pipeline to the Red Sea port of Yanbu, allowing shipments to continue towards Asian markets.
However, that alternative route has also come under pressure.
After Saudi-backed forces struck Sanaa airport earlier this month, Houthi forces responded by attacking airports in Abha and Jizan before expanding operations to target Saudi-linked shipping in the Red Sea.
The attacks have increased risks around the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, a key maritime chokepoint connecting the Red Sea to the Arabian Sea.
Difficult choices ahead
Saudi Arabia now faces a difficult strategic decision.
Officials must balance the need to deter further attacks against the risk of becoming more deeply entangled in an expanding regional conflict.
The Kingdom previously fought a seven-year military campaign against the Houthis in Yemen before agreeing to a fragile truce in 2022. With attacks now coming from both Yemen and Iraq, Riyadh finds itself confronting renewed security threats that could undermine its long-term economic ambitions.
Also read: US strikes Iran as widening war engulfs more countries
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