Electoral analyst Nasios Oreinos spoke on Radio Proto, offering commentary on the latest opinion polls ahead of the 2026 Parliamentary Elections and outlining the key trends shaping the political landscape.
Oreinos stressed that debate around how many people respond — or refuse to respond — to polls resurfaces every election cycle. He explained that in recent years, when the sample is representative, polls tend to reflect societal trends accurately. Using a striking analogy, he compared the sample to “a point in a swimming pool”, where measuring the temperature at a single spot is enough to understand the overall conditions. However, he acknowledged that abstention remains a difficult variable to capture, often requiring different measurement approaches.
Fragmentation and decline of major parties
Analysing the trends, he noted that the two main party pillars appear significantly weakened compared with previous elections. Their combined influence has fallen from 67% in 2011 to 50% in the most recent parliamentary election — and now even lower. Centre parties, including DIKO, EDEK and the Greens, are also experiencing losses, with their polling figures dropping to levels far from those of previous decades. At the same time, new political formations such as Alma and Direct Democracy are attracting considerable voter shifts.
Dissatisfaction with institutions, government and opposition
The analyst emphasised that high prices and corruption remain the two leading concerns highlighted by citizens in polls. Around two-thirds of respondents believe the country is heading in the wrong direction, while a very large share feels the President has not fulfilled his pre-election commitments. The crisis of confidence, he added, goes beyond the government and extends to Parliament and the opposition, which “is not convincing that it fulfils its role effectively”.
“Punitive” and “ironic” voting – The parties benefiting
Oreinos predicted that the upcoming election will feature clear signs of punitive voting. Dissatisfaction is directed not only at government parties but also at centre parties and the opposition. Within this context, he placed the movement of voters towards Alma and towards Feidias Panayiotou, describing the latter as an “ironic” or “mocking” vote — a form of protest from citizens wishing to send a message to the political system.
The Gen Z factor
The analyst placed particular emphasis on the behaviour of younger voters. Generation Z, he said, does not share the traditional party loyalties of previous generations, making it far more mobile and driven by its own criteria. He noted that in the recent European Elections, Feidias Panayiotou secured around 50% of the youth vote, significantly influencing the overall result.
The rise of ELAM
Oreinos explained that part of ELAM’s rise is due not only to broader dissatisfaction but also to the political circumstances that developed after the 2023 Presidential Elections. Internal tensions within DISY and the subsequent political reshuffling created fertile ground for a shift towards the far right.
Zero confidence in institutions
In summary, Oreinos described the current pre-election environment as one of the most fluid in recent years. The government and institutions register negative ratings, parties face heavy voter leakage, a significant share of the public remains undecided, and two parties are neck-and-neck at the top. Although polling companies use different weighting methods, the surveys converge on the same picture: the top two parties are extremely close, and the final outcome remains wide open.
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