Mojtaba Khamenei, son of the former Supreme Leader, has been elected by the Assembly of Experts as the new Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic of Iran.
Background and influence
The 56-year-old Shia cleric is considered a highly influential figure behind the scenes of Iranian power since the 2000s, mainly through his father and connections with security apparatuses. He has established close ties with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).
Religiously, Mojtaba Khamenei belongs to the Shia clergy and studied theology at the Qom seminary, one of the most important centres of Shia learning. His appointment, however, is politically sensitive, as many clerics had expressed reservations about a succession resembling a “hereditary transfer” of power, which the system officially rejects. He is also a mid-ranking cleric, a departure from typical practice in Shia Islam.
Why the IRGC chose Mojtaba Khamenei
The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) reportedly selected Mojtaba Khamenei as Iran’s next Supreme Leader due to two key factors: control and legitimacy. The decision aims to secure the chain of command, prevent internal power struggles, and maintain cohesion among security forces during ongoing war.
Mojtaba’s decades-long ties to the IRGC give him a rare position within Iran’s security and political apparatus. He has acted as a critical channel between his father, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and the IRGC leadership. As head of the Supreme Leader’s Office, the Beit Rahbari, for nearly 20 years, he has managed key political, financial, and security departments, ensuring continuity and stability.
The IRGC reportedly prioritised this internal stability, recognising that an outsider would struggle to command authority across the state’s core structures. Mojtaba’s familiarity with both military and clerical leadership made him the ideal choice to prevent chaos during the leadership transition.
Mojtaba’s direct relationship with Ali Khamenei ensures continuity and acceptance among the regime’s core supporters, without suggesting a breakdown in the system. Mojtaba’s selection allows the regime to present any decision, whether to escalate or de-escalate conflict, as the choice of the heir and the family, preserving internal legitimacy and authority.
Hardline continuity amid conflict
Analysts suggest his election reflects hardline factions’ desire to maintain continuity in the regime’s strategic line, especially during a period of war with Israel and the United States.
In Israel and elsewhere, experts predict that Mojtaba Khamenei’s leadership will influence both Iran’s internal political balance and Tehran’s stance in the Middle East. Diplomats and analysts believe the new leader will move quickly to consolidate control within the power structure while preserving the regime’s strategic policies toward the West.
Assembly of Experts’ role questioned amid Iran crisis
The Assembly of Experts is Iran’s deliberative body empowered to appoint, supervise, and dismiss the Supreme Leader. Despite its constitutional authority, the Assembly’s independence is widely questioned.
The Assembly’s constrained authority and the heavy influence of the Supreme Leader underscore why many view it as a ceremonial body rather than an independent check on power.
Structure and election process
The Assembly consists of 88 elected Mujtahids serving eight-year terms. Candidates must be rigorously vetted by the Guardian Council, whose members are appointed directly or indirectly by the Supreme Leader. This vetting often excludes reformist or opposition candidates, leaving voters with only pro-establishment choices. In 2016, only 166 of 801 applicants were approved.
Ceremonial power and historical precedent
The Assembly has never dismissed a Supreme Leader. Critics argue it largely serves to endorse and praise the leader rather than supervise him. For example, Ali Khamenei’s criticism of members like Ahmad Azari Qomi and Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani led to their arrests or retractions. Mehdi Karroubi, under house arrest since 2011 by Khamenei’s order, described the body as “ceremonial… that only praises the Leader.”
The Assembly has met only twice yearly per law, but historically, its sole major activation was after Khomeini’s death in 1989, elevating Khamenei despite “inferior religious credentials” to the rank of ayatollah for succession.
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