Long-range missiles against Russia – A shift in the war balance?

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The United States has, for the first time, permitted Ukraine to use long-range missiles to target sites within Russia.

The outgoing Biden administration has informed Kyiv that it can use US-made ATACMS missiles for limited strikes within Russia, according to CBS.

Previously, Washington had refused to allow such attacks, fearing they would escalate the war.

This significant policy reversal comes two months before President Joe Biden hands over power to Donald Trump, who is sceptical about US military aid to Ukraine.

Why did the US allow Ukraine to use ATACMS within Russia?

Ukraine has been using the Army Tactical Missile System, known as ATACMS, to target Russian positions in occupied Ukrainian territories for over a year. It has deployed ATACMS to hit airbases in occupied Crimea and military sites in the Zaporizhzhia region.

Until now, however, the US had not permitted Kyiv to use these long-range missiles within Russian borders. Manufactured by Lockheed Martin, these ballistic missiles are among the most powerful provided to Ukraine, capable of covering distances up to 300 km.

Ukraine argued that restricting the use of these weapons within Russia was akin to fighting with one hand tied behind its back.

The policy shift is reportedly a response to the recent deployment of North Korean troops to support Russia in the Kursk border region, where Ukraine has been occupying territory since August.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has yet to confirm the decision. However, on Sunday, he stated: “Actions are not carried out with words… Missiles will speak for themselves.”

What impact will the missiles have?

Ukraine will now be able to strike targets inside Russia, likely starting in the Kursk region, where it already controls over 1,000 sq. km. ATACMS missiles may be used defensively against counterattacks from Russia and North Korea, targeting military bases, infrastructure, and ammunition depots.

According to a BBC analysis, the number of missiles is insufficient to change the course of the war but will provide Ukraine with a strategic advantage, especially as Russia gains ground and Ukrainian morale declines. A Kyiv-based diplomat described the move as symbolic, increasing the cost of war for Russia.

Will the war escalate?

The US decision to supply Ukraine with long-range missiles has raised concerns about escalation. President Putin warned that such an act could be interpreted as NATO’s direct involvement in the war. Nevertheless, Russia’s “red lines” have been crossed before (e.g., with the supply of modern tanks) without leading to broader conflict.

Some, like former US ambassador to NATO Kurt Volker, argue that US restrictions on the use of these weapons are unjustified and based on fear of “provoking” Russia. While strategically important, publicising this decision gives Russia time to prepare.

How will Donald Trump react?

President Joe Biden, with just two months left in his term, is preparing to hand over power to President-elect Donald Trump, who has not clarified whether he will continue US support for Ukraine.

Some of Trump’s close allies have already criticised this policy. Donald Trump Jr. claimed that the “military-industrial complex” is trying to provoke World War III before his father has the chance to bring peace.

Trump has promised to end the war in Ukraine within a day, without specifying how. Democrats accuse him of supporting Putin, whom he has praised repeatedly.

Trump’s aides are divided: Vice President J.D. Vance opposes continuing military aid to Ukraine, while National Security Advisor Michael Waltz argues that accelerating arms shipments could pressure Russia to negotiate.

The direction the new Trump administration will take remains unclear. However, in Ukraine, there is concern that it might halt the provision of weapons like ATACMS. “We are worried and hope [Trump] will not reverse the decision,” stated Ukrainian MP Oleksiy Goncharenko.

Also read: Russian MP Butina says Biden risks triggering WWIII

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