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- Iranian forces have assessed attacks on US military facilities in southeastern Europe, including Bulgaria, where the US uses Bezmer air base for refuelling aircraft.
- Cyprus is also among potential retaliation targets, and the British base at Akrotiri was hit by a drone in March.
- Iranian forces have separately considered attacking undersea fibre-optic cables in the Strait of Hormuz if the conflict escalates further.
- Tehran is preparing for another war, while hardline figures gain influence in senior security and armed forces posts.
Iran has considered expanding the war beyond the Middle East to target US military sites in Europe if US President Donald Trump orders further escalation, according to people close to the Iranian regime who spoke to the Financial Times.
Two sources familiar with the discussions told the FT that Iranian forces have assessed scenarios involving attacks on US military facilities in southeastern Europe, including Bulgaria.
Sofia approved the use of Bezmer air base by US refuelling aircraft last month. One source said Cyprus was also among the potential targets for retaliation if the US launches another attack. The British base at Akrotiri was hit by a drone in March.
Iranian armed forces have also separately considered attacking undersea fibre-optic cables in the Strait of Hormuz if the conflict escalates further, according to the sources.
Tehran expects another round of war
The threats reflect the increasingly tense atmosphere in Tehran, where more officials within the regime believe a resumption of hostilities is becoming a question of when rather than if.
Talks over reopening the Strait of Hormuz have stalled, while Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, appointed hardline figures to senior positions within the country’s security apparatus and armed forces last week.
On Tuesday, Trump said that there were no talks or contacts with Tehran taking place or planned.
The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and other Iranian military commanders have warned that, in the event of another full-scale conflict, Iran would abandon its previous strategy of focusing on US military facilities, energy infrastructure and other targets in the Middle East.
Instead, they have indicated that Iranian strikes could extend well beyond the region.
Last month, the IRGC also warned Britain over the use of British military bases by the US, saying that any base used to launch an attack against Iranian territory would be considered a legitimate target.
How serious is the threat to Europe?
Sidharth Kaushal, a researcher at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) in London, described the threat posed by Iranian missiles to targets in Europe and elsewhere as “real but limited”.
He said Iran could use medium-range ballistic missiles, including missiles from the Shahab series, against US facilities in southern and southeastern Europe.
However, he said the missiles would face difficulties causing significant damage over greater distances.
The extent of any Iranian retaliation would depend on Washington’s actions, according to the FT sources.
One source said the regime was preparing a plan to further widen the conflict if Trump carried out previous threats to attack Iranian infrastructure.
The US president said last month that Washington would destroy an Iranian bridge or power plant each time the Islamic Republic attacked a vessel in the Strait of Hormuz.
The second source said Tehran would impose “no limits” on its response to a US attack.
“If the US goes too far, Iran will defend itself at any cost, move beyond the region and strike Europe,” the source said.
Diego Garcia, Turkey and Cyprus
Iran has already demonstrated its willingness to target locations at considerable distances from its territory.
In the weeks after the US and Israel began the war in February, Washington accused Tehran of launching multiple missiles towards Diego Garcia, the joint US-UK military base in the Indian Ocean, around 4,000 kilometres away. None of the missiles reached their target.
In March, Turkey announced that NATO air defences had intercepted several ballistic missiles launched from Iran.
That same month, the British base at Akrotiri in Cyprus was hit by a drone. Western officials at the time believed it was likely an Iranian drone operated by forces aligned with Tehran, rather than a direct Iranian strike.
The sources also said Iran’s attack last month on a US base in Jordan, which killed three American service members, was the Islamic Republic’s most accurate long-range strike to date.
They said the attack demonstrated Iran’s ability to hit targets at greater distances.
“This was also a message to Europe: it can receive missiles, so it should know what position it will take in this war,” the first source said.
“A very big mistake, such as a strike on our infrastructure, could take the war beyond the region and into Europe,” the source added.
Hardliners gain influence in Tehran
Some within the Iranian regime are meanwhile concerned that Tehran may be pushing the situation too far.
Many hardliners, however, believe the US cannot be trusted to honour any agreement. They argue that Iran must increase the cost for Washington to ensure it honours its commitments under any potential final deal.
Among them is Mohsen Rezaei, a former IRGC commander whom Khamenei appointed last week to the country’s top security position.
Iranian analysts interpreted the move as a sign that figures such as Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, Tehran’s top negotiator, have been sidelined for now as the prospects of reaching a lasting agreement appear increasingly remote.
“Iran is sending a clear message: if you do not reach an agreement with Ghalibaf, you will have to deal with Rezaei,” the second source said.
The source summarised Tehran’s message as follows: “Don’t go crazy, because I am crazier than you.”
Also read: Iran threatens “full-scale attack” after US talks hit deadlock
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