Turkey appears trapped in a new geopolitical rivalry: on one side the vision of Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s “New Turkey”, seeking to restore regional power with doctrines such as the “Blue Homeland”, and on the other, the narrative of “Great Israel” as a hegemonic strategy in the Eastern Mediterranean and the Middle East. This confrontation is becoming particularly intense in Cyprus and the wider region. Ankara links its strength to controlling Cyprus and securing access to energy resources, while challenging the sovereign rights of the Republic of Cyprus.
Ankara’s announcement
Turkey’s recent announcement that it would suspend trade with Israel, ban Israeli ships from its ports, and close its airspace to Israeli aircraft surprised many observers. However, it was not a new step: similar intentions had been voiced in the past, and Turkey had already taken such measures months earlier. The question is why Ankara chose this moment to re-announce them.
Domestic consumption and external messaging
According to Israeli analysts, the announcement, delivered by Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan in an emergency session of the Turkish parliament in response to the war in Gaza, was aimed both at domestic opinion and international audiences. Domestically, Erdoğan’s government sought to silence critics, reminding them that as of May 2024, trade ties worth $9.5 billion had already been cut and direct flights suspended.
The shadow of Israel in Syria
On the foreign policy front, the move reflects Ankara’s growing fear of Israel’s increasing influence in southern Syria, a development it sees as a threat to national security. The prospect of Kurdish enclaves in the east, Alawite control in the west, and Druze presence in the south is perceived as a future danger to Turkey’s own cohesion.
New Turkey vs Great Israel
Despite growing confrontation, both Israel and Turkey avoid direct military conflict. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu promotes the vision of a “Great Israel”, while Erdoğan, through neo-Ottoman rhetoric, speaks of a “New Turkey” with an upgraded role.
“New Turkey” is the political and geostrategic strategy of Turkey under Erdoğan’s leadership. It aims to restore Turkey’s regional power as a key player in the Middle East, Mediterranean, Balkans and Black Sea. The vision includes the doctrines of “Blue Homeland” and “Strategic Depth”, which seek to correct “past shortcomings” and turn Turkey into a regional hegemon modelled on the Ottoman Empire.
The concept of “Great Israel”, recently revived by Netanyahu, is based on historical and theological foundations stretching from the Nile to the Euphrates, covering areas of modern Egypt, Lebanon, Syria, Jordan and Saudi Arabia. Since 1948, and particularly after the Six Day War in 1967, the vision has re-emerged strongly with the occupation of extensive territories, often justified in religious and political terms.
Geopolitical competition and Cyprus
The “New Turkey” and “Great Israel” frameworks are competitive on many levels. Within the “Blue Homeland” strategy, Turkey seeks control over Cyprus to expand its regional influence and secure vital energy resources in the Eastern Mediterranean. These claims directly challenge the sovereign rights of the Republic of Cyprus, especially regarding its Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) and natural gas reserves.
Israel, by contrast, has developed close cooperation with the Republic of Cyprus, particularly in energy and security. Cyprus hosts significant natural gas deposits and is a crucial hub for projects such as the EastMed pipeline and the Great Sea Interconnector cable (GSI). Israel aims to exclude Turkey and the occupied north of Cyprus from this energy equation, thereby strengthening its regional position and advancing the vision of “Great Israel” as a dominant power.
Also read: Fidan accuses Greece of using Turkey as a political scapegoat
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