Europe is facing a significant jet fuel shortage ahead of the final quarter of 2026, prompting buyers to seek supplies from as far away as South Korea as shipments from the Middle East decline sharply.
Europe faces 510,000-barrel daily shortfall
According to Kpler data, imports of jet fuel from South Korea to Europe have reached around 129,000 barrels per day so far in September, the highest level since October 2022. Data from LSEG shows a similar trend.
The pressure is expected to intensify in the coming months. Energy Aspects estimates that Europe will face a deficit of around 510,000 barrels of jet fuel per day during the fourth quarter.
By comparison, the United States is expected to record a surplus of around 18,000 barrels per day, while the Asia-Pacific region is forecast to have a surplus of 419,000 barrels per day.
The imbalance is making Asia increasingly important for European supplies.
Iran war disrupts traditional supply routes
The war in Iran has played a key role in reshaping global fuel flows, causing major disruptions to supplies from the Middle East.
European imports of jet fuel from the region have fallen by around half. To make up the shortfall, Europe has increased purchases from the United States, Canada and Nigeria, while more cargoes are now arriving from Asia.
Greater reliance on distant suppliers also leaves the European market more exposed to potential geopolitical and shipping disruptions.
Jet fuel stocks fall to seven-year low
Low inventories are adding to the pressure.
At the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA) refining and storage hub, independent jet fuel stocks fell in the week to 10 September to their lowest level in seven years.
Higher European prices are now providing enough economic incentive for cargoes from the other side of the world to be shipped to European markets.
South Korea boosts production
South Korea is particularly well placed to help fill part of the supply gap.
Jet fuel production in the country approached 13.89 million barrels in July, its highest level in seven years, while exports reached a three-and-a-half-year high.
Crude processing rates at South Korean refineries also rose to 2.7 million barrels per day in July, up 16% from June.
Asia is therefore acting as a “swing supplier” for Europe. When the price difference between European and Asian markets is large enough to cover transport costs, cargoes can be redirected and shipped thousands of kilometres towards European buyers.
Europe faces a new fuel reality
Analysts expect imports to remain elevated as Europe continues to face a jet fuel deficit.
The pressure is not limited to aviation fuel. Jet fuel is a middle distillate alongside diesel, which has also faced strong upward price pressure in Europe.
The shift highlights another change in Europe’s energy supply geography. Fuel that could previously be sourced relatively close to the region in the Middle East is increasingly being sought from South Korea and other suppliers thousands of kilometres away as geopolitical uncertainty reshapes global trade flows.
Also read: Sharp fuel price hikes in Cyprus as heating oil hits record high
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