The developing El Niño weather system could push around 50 million more people into acute hunger before the end of next year, according to forecasts cited by the United Nations World Food Programme (WFP).
The warning comes as hundreds of millions of people are already facing severe levels of hunger due to prolonged droughts in parts of Africa, rising food prices and the impact of global conflicts.
The WFP said even a weaker-than-expected El Niño could add more than one-fifth to the 225 million people currently experiencing acute food insecurity across 45 countries.
Southern Africa among worst affected regions
According to the analysis, Central and South America, the Caribbean and southern Africa are expected to face the greatest impacts.
In South and Southeast Asia, below-average rainfall could create serious challenges for agriculture and farmers.
El Niño is a weather pattern that develops every few years in the Pacific Ocean and affects rainfall and temperatures around the world.
This year’s event is forecast to be the strongest in at least seven decades, with some experts describing it as a “super El Niño”, although the term is not officially recognised.
Scientists have warned that the effects of El Niño are being intensified by the climate crisis, with the combination of extreme weather and global warming potentially contributing to record temperatures.
Food prices face further pressure
The WFP said it aims to reduce the impact of extreme weather through early warning systems and anticipatory relief measures, with at least $80 million allocated for preparations.
However, the consequences are expected to continue beyond the immediate weather event, as farmers may need more than one growing season to recover their food supplies.
In southern Africa, the main growing season runs from October 2026 to March 2027. The most severe effects are expected later, during the 2027-2028 lean season after harvests have been exhausted.
“The biggest food security impact, in southern Africa, will be during the 2027 to 2028 lean season,” said Richard Choularton, the WFP’s director of climate and resilience services.
Previous El Niño events caused widespread hunger
During the 2015-2016 El Niño event, between 60 million and 100 million people experienced acute food insecurity, according to WFP estimates.
The organisation said improved early warning systems and anticipatory action could help reduce the impact of the current event, although efforts have been affected by limited data collection due to funding shortages.
The WFP stressed that food prices could rise globally, depending partly on decisions by major food-exporting countries.
Jean-Martin Bauer, the WFP’s director of food security, warned that countries should avoid restricting food exports, as such measures could increase pressure on markets and access to food.
Climate impacts reach Europe
Farmers in the UK and Europe have also warned about the effects of extreme heat and reduced rainfall on harvests, with retailers preparing for possible price increases.
Also read: Italy and Switzerland face severe drought crisis
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