Cyprus Details Turkey’s ‘Systematic Strategy of Demographic Alteration’ at High-Level Geneva Retreat
by Marios Poullados
GENEVA, SWITZERLAND– In a powerful intervention at a high-level “Migration Retreat” on May 28, a representative of the Deputy Ministry for Migration and International Protection of Cyprus offered compelling evidence of Turkey’s systematic instrumentalisation of migrants. The presentation argued that this is a deliberate hybrid threat designed to achieve specific geopolitical goals, culminating in the “alteration of the demographic identity of Cyprus.”
The retreat, hosted by the Permanent Mission of the Republic of Poland, brought together diplomats, UN officials and legal experts, in order to analyze the diverse forms of migration instrumentalisation and formulate coordinated responses. The session featured key panelists from affected EU member states, including Finland and Poland, with the European Commission providing an overview of relevant legal frameworks.
The Cypriot presentation was highlighted as being a cornerstone of the dialogue, but also praised for demonstrating the different facets instrumentalisation can take. It introduced the critical concept that such state-driven threats include, not only active measures but also “passive or permissive actions,” providing a new and broader lens for analysis.
The Cypriot representative conveyed that Turkey’s actions are, certainly, a form of hybrid threat aimed at achieving specific geopolitical objectives. The core of the presentation detailed the methods, motivations, and severe impact of this strategy on the Republic of Cyprus. It was explained that the instrumentalisation practices are linked to Turkey’s long-standing policy of transferring settlers from mainland Anatolia to the island’s occupied areas. Together, these actions form a single strategy, to deliberately alter the demographic identity of Cyprus by diluting the historical Greek Cypriot numerical majority, thereby reinforcing Turkey’s vision of «a divided island».
The Cypriot Government presented several key arguments, which included the following aspects:
● Systematic Influx: A consistent pattern shows a substantial majority of third-country nationals arriving in the Republic of Cyprus only after first reaching Turkey, moving to the occupied areas, and then illegally crossing the Green Line. Between 2016 and 2024, approximately 98% of all irregular asylum seekers arrived in this manner.
● Exploitation of the vulnerability caused by the illegal invasion and illegal occupation of Cyprus: The presentation stressed that the Green Line, a cease-fire line resulting from the illegal invasion and occupation of Cyprus, is strategically exploited by Turkey. Its inability to be “closed” like an external border allows Turkey to actively channel migrant flows into the government-controlled areas of the Republic.
● Turkey’s Dual Strategy: The presentation exposed how Turkey, while benefiting from significant EU financial aid to host refugees, simultaneously facilitates the onward movement of these same asylum seekers toward Cyprus. Evidence presented demonstrated how this is a calculated attempt to leverage migration and gain influence in relationship between Turkey and the EU.
● Turkey’s actions fundamentally abuse Cyprus’s unwavering commitment to its obligations under international law, particularly its steadfast adherence to the principle of non-refoulement. Cyprus, as a sovereign state, is bound to receive and examine asylum applications. This obligation arises precisely because the occupied entity is not a legitimate state, preventing the Green Line from being treated as a recognized international border. Evidence points to several deliberate methods, including Turkey’s orchestrating cheap flights directly from Turkey, abolishing visa requirements for certain third countries, specifically those known as points of origin for irregular migration, as well as issuing “student visas” to migrants who possess no relevant academic qualifications, effectively creating a fraudulent pathway for entry.
The presentation revealed the severe demographic pressure on Cyprus, where the number of asylum seekers and beneficiaries of protection now exceeds 7% of the nation’s total population—an overwhelming figure for the small island state. This situation was described as an “existential threat” to the Republic of Cyprus.
Participants expressed profound concern as the presentation revealed how raw migration figures can be misleading. While 21,000 asylum seekers annually, the number of asylum seekers received by Cyprus in 2022, might seem manageable for larger nations, it represents an overwhelming burden for Cyprus. This influx is demographically equivalent to over 2 million asylum seekers for Germany and clearly illustrates the significant and disproportionate pressure on the small island state.
Concluding the presentation, the representative of Cyprus stressed: “What Cyprus is facing is not merely a migration management issue; it is a calculated, state-led hybrid threat with a clear geopolitical objective. Turkey is pursuing to alter the demographic identity of our island. It systematically funnels asylum seekers through the Green Line, leading to a situation where asylum seekers and beneficiaries now exceed 7% of our population. We do remain committed to our obligations, but at the same time, we must address this threat to our nation’s demographic integrity, internal security, and political stability.”
A representative on behalf of the organizers noted how, “the detailed and insightful presentation from Cyprus was a cornerstone of our retreat. It fundamentally shaped the discussion and expanded our collective understanding of the issue. This is exactly the kind of expert, in-depth analysis needed to inform international policy.”
The event successfully established a dynamic platform for dialogue, with the Cypriot case study significantly fostering a more comprehensive understanding of the issue.
Also read: Modern Diplomacy: Eastern Mediterranean under Turkish threat
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