Climate change could push almost one in two households in Cyprus into poverty risk in the coming decades, according to a new study warning that rising temperatures, heatwaves and worsening droughts will deepen income inequality and disproportionately affect low-income families.
The research suggests that climate-related income losses in Cyprus could reach as much as 54% of projected future income levels, approximately twice the European average.
The findings highlight the growing threat of Cyprus climate poverty, as extreme weather conditions increasingly affect household finances and the ability of vulnerable people to cope with economic pressures.
The study, authored by Jessie Ruth Schleypen of the International Security and Development Center in Germany and Professor Theodoros Zachariadis of the Cyprus Institute, examines the economic and social consequences of increasingly frequent heatwaves and droughts.
It finds that extreme weather has already caused significant income losses among Cypriot households, with the effects expected to intensify over the coming decades.
Almost half of Cyprus households could face poverty risk
One of the study’s most concerning projections is that climate change could leave nearly half of Cyprus households at risk of poverty in the coming decades.
Under current global climate policies, which are associated with an estimated 2.7°C increase in average global temperatures, the proportion of Cypriot households at risk of poverty could rise from 14.9% today to 49%.
The researchers warn that such an increase would have profound implications for income inequality and social welfare, particularly among households already struggling financially.
Climate change could erase 54% of future income
The study also projects substantial losses in household income as a result of climate change.
According to one of its main findings, climate-related income losses in Cyprus could amount to as much as 54% of projected future income levels, approximately double the European average.
The researchers explain that much of the income growth expected among the Cypriot population over the coming decades could be lost because of additional heatwaves and droughts.
These projections suggest that the economic consequences of climate change may extend far beyond immediate damage caused by extreme weather.
Poorest households have already lost 9% of income
The effects of climate change on household incomes are already being felt, particularly among the most economically vulnerable.
According to the study, over the past two decades, Europe’s poorest households experienced income losses from heatwaves and droughts that were 2.7 percentage points greater than those recorded among wealthier households.
In Cyprus, the estimated losses were even higher during the period from 2004 to 2022.
The researchers calculate that climate-related income losses reached approximately 5% across the population as a whole and 9% among the poorest households.
These findings underline the importance of protecting vulnerable people through financial and technical assistance, particularly by improving the climate resilience of buildings and neighbourhoods.
Why climate change creates a poverty trap
The study explains that lower-income households are disproportionately exposed to the economic consequences of extreme weather because they have fewer financial resources available to respond to sudden shocks.
They also face a greater burden when paying for essential services and resources needed to cope with and recover from climate-related events.
As a result, poorer households have less capacity to adapt to sudden reductions in income than wealthier households.
Each additional financial shock further reduces their available resources and limits their ability to protect themselves against future climate impacts.
The researchers warn that short-term financial difficulties can therefore develop into long-term economic hardship, trapping vulnerable households in a cycle of poverty.
Climate change is also expected to increase expenditure on food, electricity and healthcare.
These costs are described as regressive because poorer households spend a larger proportion of their income on essential needs.
At the same time, extreme weather could reduce labour productivity and gradually diminish the value of household assets.
Together, these pressures could intensify Cyprus climate poverty risks, making it increasingly difficult for lower-income families to recover from successive economic setbacks.
Cyprus among countries facing the greatest impacts
The study identifies Cyprus as one of the countries expected to experience particularly severe negative consequences from climate change.
Historical climate data show that the frequency of heatwaves, droughts and other extreme weather events varies considerably across European regions.
Southern European countries, including Cyprus, experience these conditions more frequently than many other parts of the continent.
This greater exposure means that households in Cyprus may face more pronounced economic consequences as temperatures continue to rise and periods of drought become more intense.
Researchers call for stronger climate policies
The study stresses the need for policies that both reduce the consequences of climate change and help vulnerable households adapt to conditions that are already changing.
According to the researchers, public policy should provide support to households facing unavoidable climate impacts while continuing to reduce emissions and Cyprus’s dependence on imported fossil fuels.
They note that dependence on imported fossil fuels disproportionately affects lower-income households.
A central recommendation is to improve the resilience of buildings and neighbourhoods, particularly in areas where economically vulnerable people live.
Such measures would contribute both to climate adaptation and to reducing the effects of climate change.
The researchers conclude that effective climate policies can help create a more resilient and equitable society, making them an important component of economic and social policy in Cyprus.
The findings also support conclusions from another recent Europe-wide study prepared for the European Economic and Social Committee.
In addition, the European Central Bank has recently highlighted the particular vulnerability of lower-income households to climate-related risks.
Overall, the research warns that without adequate protection and adaptation measures, Cyprus climate poverty could become an increasingly serious challenge for households and policymakers in the decades ahead.
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