It took Donald Trump a decade to transform the Republican Party, build his personal political movement, MAGA, and reshape the balance of power in American politics.
However, less than two years after returning to the White House, his political dominance has suffered a major blow. The Republicans’ crushing defeat in the midterm elections, with Democrats winning control of both the House of Representatives and the Senate, marks one of the most significant electoral setbacks of his political career.
In an extensive analysis entitled “Donald Trump’s great humiliation”, the Financial Times identifies five main reasons behind the result: tariffs, the rising cost of living, the war with Iran, Trump’s choice of candidates and the growing gap between MAGA’s anti-establishment rhetoric and the image of his administration.
1. Tariffs that increased costs for Americans
Since 2016, Trump has presented tariffs as a tool to protect American industry and create jobs. During his second term, he significantly expanded this trade policy, increasing costs for businesses that rely on imported raw materials and components.
At the same time, trade disputes created difficulties for American producers dependent on exports, particularly in agricultural states. A policy presented as economic protection therefore became an additional source of uncertainty.
2. The cost of living Trump underestimated
The economy emerged as one of the Republicans’ biggest weaknesses.
Despite Trump’s promises to bring down inflation and restore purchasing power, households continued to face high prices for food, fuel and housing.
His references to Wall Street’s positive performance failed to offset the financial pressure experienced by ordinary Americans.
For a movement that had built much of its appeal around defending economically struggling voters, this contradiction proved particularly damaging.
3. The Iran war and Trump’s promise of peace
US involvement in the war with Iran contradicted Trump’s image as a president who would avoid new, prolonged military interventions.
The conflict disrupted energy markets, affected oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz and pushed fuel prices higher. Foreign policy therefore became another source of everyday financial pressure for American households.
Military involvement also triggered criticism within MAGA, where many supporters had identified with Trump’s promise to keep the United States out of new wars.
Vice-President JD Vance acknowledged the importance of the issue, linking the Republicans’ defeat to the war.
4. Candidates who became too closely associated with Trump
Over the past decade, personal loyalty to Trump has become a key factor in political survival within the Republican Party.
His endorsement could determine the outcome of internal party contests. However, the same strategy proved problematic in general elections.
Democrats capitalised on Republican candidates’ close association with the president, turning several races into referendums on his second term.
Trump himself effectively acknowledged that Republicans had failed to translate his personal popularity and political appeal into equivalent electoral support for their candidates.
5. From anti-establishment rhetoric to the image of economic elites
In 2016, Trump presented his candidacy as a revolt against Washington’s political and economic establishment.
Ten years later, however, his administration’s image has raised questions about the gap between his promises and political practice.
His relationships with major business figures, his family’s activities in the cryptocurrency sector and allegations of potential conflicts of interest have fuelled criticism.
Meanwhile, Trump’s major construction projects in Washington, including a new ballroom at the White House, have reinforced the symbolic contrast between government priorities and the financial difficulties facing ordinary Americans.
The cracks in the MAGA movement
These five failures highlight the gradual weakening of the electoral coalition that enabled Trump to win in 2016 and return to the White House in 2024.
Workers without university degrees, residents of industrial regions, sections of the Hispanic community and younger voters had all contributed to the Republican Party’s growing support.
However, economic dissatisfaction and the policy choices of Trump’s second term appear to have tested the unity of this coalition.
The defeat also presents Republicans with a difficult dilemma: should they continue to identify fully with Trump or attempt to establish a new political identity ahead of the 2028 elections?
What lies ahead for Trump
Losing control of both chambers of Congress significantly limits Trump’s ability to advance his legislative agenda.
Democrats will be able to block government initiatives, strengthen congressional oversight and launch investigations into the administration’s activities.
Despite retaining substantial presidential powers, Trump will face a considerably more difficult political environment.
At the same time, discussions about his succession are gaining momentum. Vice-President JD Vance and other Republican figures will have to address whether MAGA can maintain its influence without Trump himself, who is constitutionally barred from seeking a third presidential term.
The electoral defeat does not mean that the US president’s influence has disappeared. It does, however, expose the limits of his political dominance and the gap between the promises that brought him to power and the decisions taken during his second presidency.
The man who promised a decade ago to overturn Washington’s political establishment is now facing an electoral backlash from the very voters who helped put him in power.
Also read: Democrats secure control of House and Senate in 2026 midterms
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