Tensions between Israel and Turkey have intensified following an Israeli airstrike on the Abu al-Duhur base in Syria on August 18, 2026, highlighting growing competition between the two key US allies in the region.
The strike came after Mossad chief Roman Gofman reportedly warned Syrian Foreign Minister Asaad al-Shaibani against hosting a Turkish military delegation.
Israel believed the visit could pave the way for a permanent Turkish presence at the base, including air defence radars and armed drones that could restrict Israel’s ability to strike targets linked to Iran.
The Turkish presidency described the strike as “illegal” and an attack on Syria’s sovereignty and territorial integrity.
President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan said that “no other actor apart from the nation itself can dictate Turkey’s course or set the limits of its foreign policy”.
Israel responded by accusing Ankara of repeatedly violating Syria’s sovereignty in Kurdish areas.
Power vacuum reshapes Syria
Following the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime and the weakening of Hezbollah and Iran, Israel and Turkey are competing to shape Syria’s new landscape.
Both countries are seeking to portray the other as a destabilising force while attempting to secure the support of US President Donald Trump.
More than 20,000 Turkish troops are estimated to already be stationed in Syria. Ankara presents its role as supporting the country’s reconstruction, while Israel views Turkey as a hostile power seeking to establish what it describes as a “Sunni ring of fire” around Israel.
Former Syrian diplomat Bassam Barabandi said Turkey was prepared to become a Sunni power in the region.
“This is the Middle East: if one power leaves and a vacuum is created, another will fill it,” he said.
Yaakov Amidror, a former adviser to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, said Israel “cannot allow Turkey to deploy troops on our borders”.
Israeli distrust is also fuelled by Erdoğan’s support for Hamas and the Muslim Brotherhood, as well as suspicions over alleged ambitions to expand Turkish influence.
Washington faces a difficult choice
The public confrontation presents a challenge for the Trump administration: can the US rely on its two allies to manage regional affairs as Washington reduces its presence, or could their rivalry escalate into direct conflict?
US Ambassador to Turkey and special envoy for Syria Tom Barrack has appeared closer to Ankara’s position, describing the Israeli strike as an “unnecessary escalation” and accusing Israel of “provoking the Turks”.
Trump has publicly praised Erdoğan and acknowledged Turkey’s military weight. Ankara has also strengthened its regional profile through a joint defence agreement with Saudi Arabia and nuclear-armed Pakistan.
Analysts say Israel is no longer addressing its concerns solely to Erdoğan, but is primarily sending a message to Trump.
Haï Eytan Cohen Yanarocak said Jerusalem was trying to convince Washington that the tensions were not merely rhetorical and could develop into a military confrontation if left unmanaged.
Direct conflict remains unlikely
An immediate military confrontation between Israel and Turkey is considered unlikely.
An attack on Turkish territory could potentially trigger NATO’s Article 5, raising the stakes considerably.
Nevertheless, both sides are using Syria as a pressure point. Israel is threatening to turn the country into a battlefield again, while Turkey is seeking to limit Israeli military dominance and its normalisation agreements.
The key question for Washington is which of its two allied powers it will regard as the dominant regional force as the US reduces its presence.
A deconfliction mechanism and the reactivation of a back-channel between the sides in Baku could help reduce the risk.
The rivalry, however, is expected to continue across multiple fronts in the region.
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