Debate over Europe’s role in the war in Ukraine has reached a turning point. President Donald Trump’s revised peace plan — widely viewed as favourable to Moscow — now forces European capitals to confront long-avoided questions: do they have the political will, public backing and military strength to defend the continent? At the same time, developments are expected after Trump sent Witkoff to Moscow for talks with Putin.
The Debate Sparked in France
Comments by France’s army chief, General Fabien Mandon, that the country must accept the possibility that “young French people may need to die” to protect Europe, ignited a political storm. Accusations of warmongering came from both left and right, a sign of how far European public opinion remains from accepting the risk of real military conflict.
These remarks came before the new US initiative on Ukraine, yet they pinpointed the core issue: can Europe speak of peace without the leverage that real power provides?
Europe’s Defence Reality: Budgets, Recruitment and Political Costs
For decades, major European states enjoyed the post–Cold War “peace dividend.” Defence budgets shrank, troop numbers fell and enthusiasm for military service declined.
After Russia’s invasion, Europe shifted direction — higher spending, new weapons programmes, larger orders. But progress remains uneven. In many countries, fewer than one in three citizens say they would fight in a war; in Germany, the figure drops to 23%.
By contrast, states bordering Russia — Poland, Finland and the Baltic republics — move far more decisively with conscription, extensive reserve training and constant preparation.
The Diplomatic Marathon: Europe Softens Trump’s Plan
Despite its military weakness, Europe’s diplomacy still carries weight. Germany, France and the UK reportedly pushed through major changes to the most pro-Russian elements of Trump’s proposal, according to US sources.
Whether those changes survive remains uncertain. Diplomats admit Russia is unlikely to accept any deal that fails to meet its core demands.
Volodymyr Zelensky relies heavily on European stability, especially after a frosty reception in Washington and subsequent tensions with Moscow. Yet Kyiv also expresses frustration: Europeans often pair strong rhetoric with limited military support.
The Peace Framework: What Ukraine Accepts — and Rejects
According to US sources, Ukraine has accepted “the essence” of the American plan, but several crucial issues remain unresolved:
• limits on Ukraine’s armed forces
• giving up the goal of NATO membership
• territorial concessions to Russia
Zelensky has made clear he will not surrender the eastern Donbas, even though the plan includes concessions there. Meanwhile, Moscow warns it will reject any amendments that stray from what Putin and Trump discussed in Alaska.
Europe’s Position: Restrictions and Concerns
Ursula von der Leyen sent a firm message: Ukraine’s borders “do not change through force.” The EU fears a deal that traps Ukraine in restricted sovereignty and jeopardises its European future.
Paris and London admit the talks have reached “a crucial phase,” while attacks and reprisals between Russia and Ukraine continue at full intensity.
The Bigger Picture: Diplomacy Without Power?
Europe negotiates, pressures and bargains. Yet its military strength still falls short of the geopolitical weight it seeks.
The real test lies ahead: when the moment of agreement arrives — if it arrives — how much influence will Europe hold if its own societies remain unconvinced that security carries a cost?
That question hangs over the Ukraine negotiations — and may shape the future of the continent itself.
Also read: Trump claims that Ukraine Deal is “getting closer”
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