The Middle East is undergoing a period of strategic reconfiguration, with Turkey emerging as a key shaper of developments. Following decades of conflict, the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) is reportedly laying down arms, the Assad regime is gradually being approached, and the influence of Iran and Hezbollah is receding—mainly due to Israel’s targeted operations. However, the vacuum created is being exploited by Turkey, which is advancing its neo-Ottoman agenda through diplomacy, military manoeuvres, and expansionist policies.
According to Israeli reports, Turkey has become a de facto regulator of regional dynamics:
- It manages contacts with Syria,
- Acts as a mediator on issues such as Hamas,
- Expands its military presence and balances relations with both Russia and NATO,
- And penetrates diplomatic space previously occupied by the US or Egypt.
It has also established ties with Libya and promotes the controversial Turkey–Libya maritime memorandum against Greece. Moreover, Turkey is obstructing the laying of the GSI cable connecting Israel, Cyprus, and Greece.
At the same time, Ankara’s rhetoric against Israel is becoming increasingly harsh. President Erdoğan and his close ally Hakan Fidan have framed Israel not as a regional partner, but as “the problem”—rather than Hamas or the Palestinians.
Turkey’s actions extend beyond words. It maintains a presence in Gaza, undermines regional alliances, and seeks to block any Israeli attempt to normalise relations with neighbouring states.
Strategic concern also arises from the Turkey–Qatar alliance. Doha finances Turkish operations in Syria and Libya, hosts Turkish troops, and funds Islamist movements including Hamas. This relationship is not ideological but based on mutual interest, with Qatar serving as the financial backbone of Turkey’s regional ambitions.
In this context, if Israel does not respond decisively and craft a clear strategy, it risks becoming entangled in a new kind of “cold war” with Turkey—not through missiles, but via diplomatic isolation and strategic attrition. The recommended response, according to analysis, is to deepen alliances with Greece, Cyprus, Egypt, and Saudi Arabia, expand defence cooperation with the US, and exclude Ankara from any role in the Palestinian question.
Erdoğan responds over Druze
President Erdoğan has accused Israel of using Syria’s Druze minority as a pretext for its expansion into the country. In a televised statement, he referred to Israel as a “terrorist state” and a major source of regional instability, warning that unless checked, it could trigger regional and even global conflict.
He stressed that Turkey would not allow Syria to be divided or its multicultural identity to be undermined.
His comments came in response to violent clashes in Sweida, southern Syria, where Druze fighters have been engaged in conflict with Sunni tribes and government forces.
The role of Hakan Fidan
Israeli intelligence agencies are closely monitoring the role of Hakan Fidan, who is seen as a possible successor to Erdoğan. A former head of Turkey’s National Intelligence Organisation (MIT), Fidan is a central figure in the neo-Ottoman vision, with known contacts with Hamas, Assad, and even Qassem Soleimani. Should he assume the presidency—combined with the presence of Turkish forces near Israel’s borders—he could represent a direct threat to Israeli national security.
The key conclusion is that the Israel–Turkey “cold war” has already begun—quietly, but inevitably.
Also read: Syria’s interim president says protecting Druze a “priority”
