Since July, Turkey has resumed its policy of provocations by sea and air for the first time since 2023. Notably, regarding maritime incidents, official data from the Hellenic National Defence General Staff (GEETHA), approved by the relevant department of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, shows that Turkey has reached a four-year high since 2020, when record numbers were last reported since 1974.
Specifically, as of October 2024, there were 2,196 violations of Greek territorial waters by Turkish Coast Guard and naval vessels. According to information from enikos.gr, also published by Realnews on Sunday, January 19, the overwhelming majority of these territorial waters violations were carried out by Turkish naval vessels. The “orange” line of communication established between the Greek and Turkish Coast Guards has been functioning smoothly without any significant provocative incidents. However, this does not apply to the Turkish Navy, which has displayed heightened activity since late July 2024.
To illustrate the shift in Turkey’s Aegean policy, June statistics showed just 49 violations. However, these rose sharply to 365 in July, 404 in August, 259 in September, and 278 in October. Unofficial data, yet to be confirmed by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, suggests approximately 400 violations occurred in November and December. If confirmed, this would bring the total for 2024 to over 2,500.
The primary trigger for Turkey’s renewed activity in the Aegean is linked to the operations of the Italian research vessel Ievoli Relume south of Kasos and Karpathos for laying the Greece-Cyprus-Israel electricity interconnection cable.
In total, during the first ten months of 2024, there were 2,196 violations, compared to 1,642 for all of 2023, 1,581 in 2022, 2,085 in 2021, and 3,217 in 2020 – the base year due to incidents at the Evros border and the deployment of the Oruc Reis vessel.
Turkish fishing vessels have generally shown reduced activity in the Aegean this year, except in the areas of Zourafa and the waters between Agathonisi and Samos, where a 10% increase has been recorded. The Turkish Coast Guard also had its lowest presence since 2020. However, Turkish naval vessels have demonstrated significant activity in the Dodecanese region, particularly south of Kasos-Karpathos and south and east of Rhodes.
The area south of Kasos and Karpathos is significant because it overlaps with the illegal Turkey-Libya memorandum, which has essentially been nullified, even as a narrative, due to the partial EEZ (Exclusive Economic Zone) agreement between Greece and Egypt.
By air
Turkish violations of air traffic regulations have also shown an upward trend since late August. In total, Turkish aircraft – primarily ANKA UAV drones and CN-235 and ATR-72 reconnaissance planes – committed 301 violations of air traffic regulations (K.E.K.) in 2024, 242 of which occurred after Greece began research for the electricity interconnection cable with Cyprus and Israel in August.
Air traffic regulation violations occur when an aircraft enters the Athens FIR without submitting a flight plan, thereby breaching air traffic rules established by Greek authorities under ICAO regulations and international practice. These rules aim to ensure safe flight conditions within the Athens FIR.
It is noteworthy that 2024 was the first year since 1974 without any violations of Greek national airspace or overflights of Greek territory by Turkish aircraft. However, this “zero” record was broken in early 2025. Between January 1 and Friday, January 17, there were eight violations of Greek national airspace, all by ATR-72 reconnaissance aircraft, the most recent occurring on Tuesday. Additionally, six Turkish F-16 fighter jets committed six air traffic regulation violations in the Athens FIR.
In total, during the first two weeks of 2025, the Turkish Air Force committed 56 regulation violations and eight airspace violations, prompting eight interceptions by the Hellenic Air Force. All Turkish activity was recorded in the southeastern Aegean, coinciding with the “Blue Homeland” exercise from January 7–16, which had not been conducted for the past two years.
Mitsotakis-Erdoğan meeting
The planned meeting between Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan in Ankara remains uncertain. Initially scheduled for the first half of February, it has now been postponed to March without a fixed date. The main reason for the delay is the incomplete preparations for the sixth Greece-Turkey High-Level Cooperation Council, which will convene based on the Athens Declaration of December 7, 2023.
While the Greek side views the dialogue and progress on the positive agenda as a constructive achievement, avoiding field escalations, developments in Syria have disrupted the agenda. Furthermore, the meeting between deputy foreign ministers, tasked with advancing the positive agenda, has yet to be confirmed. Although Greece’s new Deputy Foreign Minister, Tasos Hadjivasiliou, is highly knowledgeable about the pending issues, no common ground has been reached with the Turkish side as long as the Mitsotakis-Erdoğan meeting remains unscheduled.
Both Athens and Ankara are invested in the positive agenda, which they view as mutually beneficial. The Greek side aims to keep the dialogue on a constructive track, despite Turkey’s recent revisionist rhetoric about the demilitarisation of islands, “grey zones,” and provocative claims against Greece.
Also read: Suspected Turkish spy plane violated Nicosia FIR
Source: Enikos.gr
