Internal military document sparks concern
A year after Vietnam elevated its relationship with Washington to the highest diplomatic level, an internal military document shows Hanoi was preparing for a potential American “war of aggression,” describing the United States as a “belligerent” power. The report, released Tuesday, exposes Vietnam’s dual approach of pursuing diplomacy while maintaining deep-seated wariness of U.S. intentions.
The document highlights fears of a foreign-backed “color revolution” similar to the Orange Revolution in Ukraine in 2004 or the Yellow Revolution in the Philippines in 1986, according to The 88 Project, a human rights organisation focusing on abuses in Vietnam.
“The 2nd U.S. Invasion Plan”
Titled “The 2nd U.S. Invasion Plan” and completed by Vietnam’s Ministry of Defense in August 2024, the document warns that Washington, in seeking to deter China, could pursue unconventional warfare or large-scale invasions against countries outside its influence.
While it notes “little risk of a war against Vietnam” at present, the planners caution against the U.S. and its allies creating a pretext for intervention. Analysts in the report trace a progression across the Obama, Trump, and Biden administrations, with U.S. engagement in Asia increasingly framed as forming a front against China.
Balancing diplomacy and internal fears
Despite signing a “Comprehensive Strategic Partnership” with the U.S. in 2023, which elevated relations to the level of trusted partners alongside Russia and China, Vietnamese officials maintain concern over American influence. The 2024 military document warns that Washington seeks to promote freedom, democracy, human rights, ethnicity, and religion to gradually shift Vietnam’s socialist government.
Ben Swanton, co-director of The 88 Project, stated the document provides a “clear-eyed insight” into Vietnam’s foreign policy, showing that Hanoi views the U.S. as an existential threat rather than a strategic partner.
Historical context and lingering mistrust
Experts note Vietnam’s long memory of the 1975 war with the U.S. and continued military conservatism underpins its cautious stance. Cuts to USAID projects under the Trump administration, which disrupted environmental and safety initiatives, also fuel scepticism toward Washington.
Professor Zachary Abuza said the Vietnamese military’s main concern is potential internal destabilisation through a foreign-backed revolution, rather than Chinese aggression. China is seen as a regional rival, not an existential threat, while the U.S. is viewed as capable of undermining the Communist Party if an opportunity arises.
Economic ties require careful balancing
Vietnam relies on China as its largest trade partner and the U.S. as its largest export market, forcing Hanoi to balance diplomatic and economic relations carefully. Even progressive Vietnamese leaders acknowledge the U.S. as a current partner but remain wary of potential interference in domestic affairs.
Trump’s second term and strategic calculations
Under Communist Party leader To Lam, Vietnam has sought to strengthen ties with the U.S., including welcoming Trump’s business investments in the country. However, U.S. military actions abroad, such as operations in Venezuela or Cuba, reinforce conservative concerns about the unpredictability of American foreign policy and its potential impact on Vietnam’s strategic calculations.
Source: AP News
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