After a long campaign period, around 150 million Americans are expected to vote today (5 November) for either Kamala Harris or Donald Trump. These elections are historic for multiple reasons. If elected, the current Vice President would become the first Black female President in American history.
Another reason is the challenges that either candidate will face if elected. In recent months, the central issues have been the domestic economic situation, including rising costs, and internationally, how Harris or Trump would address the wars in the Middle East and Ukraine.
When Do Polls Open – When to Expect Results
According to The Guardian, polls in the US will open on 5 November between 7 a.m. and 9 a.m. EST, which falls between 2 p.m. and 4 p.m. EEST (Cyprus time).
Most polling stations will close between 7 p.m. and 9 p.m. EST on 5 November, or between 2 a.m. and 4 a.m. EEST on Wednesday, 6 November. Voting in swing states is expected to close between 7 p.m. and 11 p.m. Eastern European Time. The seven key states are Pennsylvania, Nevada, North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona, Michigan, and Wisconsin.
When to Expect Results
Results are expected as polls close in each state. Key battleground states will start announcing results once voting concludes around 7 p.m. EEST. Some key states are listed below.
Pennsylvania: The state does not permit the counting of postal votes until Election Day, so results may not be available on election night. In 2020, Pennsylvania’s results were uncertain for four days after the vote.
Georgia: State law requires all early votes to be counted and reported by 8 p.m. EST, or 3 a.m. EEST on 6 November.
North Carolina: Votes are expected to be counted throughout the afternoon of 5 November, with full results expected by midnight.
Nevada: The state accepts postal ballots that arrive late, making it highly unlikely that results will be announced the same night. In the 2020 election, results were delayed for days.
Are There Exit Polls in the US?
According to The Guardian, exit polls are conducted immediately after voting. Major news networks, including CNN, ABC, and Fox News, use them to make early predictions about likely winners, though these are subject to revisions as actual votes are counted.
Typically, media outlets agree not to publish exit poll data before all polling stations close, to avoid influencing those still voting.
Pollsters place interviewers at selected polling stations, chosen to represent a cross-section of the electorate. Voters are asked to complete anonymous questionnaires covering their candidate choice, key issues, and demographic information. Interviewers usually report results three times during the day.
Polling data is quickly analysed to reveal insights about voter demographics. Dearborn, Michigan, for instance, will be closely monitored for indications that the Gaza war affected turnout among Arab and Muslim Americans.
Exit polls also account for absentee voters through surveys by phone, text, and email. In states with high rates of early in-person voting, exit polls are conducted weeks before Election Day as voters leave polling centres. These results are later combined with Election Day data.
Polls within the Margin of Error
According to Al Jazeera, a recent New York Times/Siena poll showed Trump and Harris tied in Pennsylvania, with each receiving 48% of the vote. Meanwhile, FiveThirtyEight’s National Polls tracker gives Harris a narrow lead of 1 percentage point over Trump.
However, this lead is shrinking, indicating that either candidate has a strong chance of winning. FiveThirtyEight’s daily tracker shows Harris with a slim lead in Michigan and Wisconsin, with margins of 0.8 and 0.6 points, respectively. Conversely, Trump is gaining ground in Arizona, where he currently leads Harris by 2.5 points.
In North Carolina and Georgia, Trump’s lead is around 1.5 points. Additionally, Trump holds a 0.9-point lead in Nevada and a narrow 0.3-point lead in Pennsylvania.
What Happens in Case of an Electoral Tie?
Presidents are elected by 538 electors, a number equal to the 100 Senators and 435 members of Congress, plus three votes for Washington, DC. A majority of 270 electoral votes is required to win the White House.
According to CNNi, the total number of electoral votes, 538, is even, meaning a tie is possible. This has happened once before, in 1800, though the rules were slightly different at the time.
If neither candidate reaches the 270 votes required to win, the new Congress would elect the president, and the Senate would choose the vice president in what is known as a “contingent election.” Each of the 50 states would receive one vote. Republicans currently control more House delegations.
Swing States Determine the President
The campaigns of both candidates are focusing on seven contested states that will largely decide who becomes America’s 47th President. Known as “swing states,” these areas have highly variable majorities, unlike “safe states,” where voting trends heavily favour either Republicans or Democrats, as DW reports.
Swing states often determine the outcome. Thus, candidates organise large rallies and spend huge sums on last-minute advertising in these states, vying for undecided voters.
Arizona: Geographical factors shape priorities for Arizona voters. Sharing a border with Mexico, Arizona is at the forefront of American immigration policy.
North Carolina: The last state to join the “swing states” list. Before Biden dropped out of the race, Trump seemed to hold a lead in North Carolina. Harris has since closed the gap significantly. Notably, Democrats have lost 10 of the last 11 elections here, indicating a tough race.
Michigan: The “heart” of the American auto industry, home to Ford, General Motors, and Chrysler, now part of Stellantis. Protecting jobs in this sector is crucial to voters.
Nevada: Immigration is a key issue in Nevada, which borders Mexico. One-third of the population is Hispanic, and Nevada is one of the most urbanised states in the US.
Wisconsin: Has the highest percentage of white voters among all swing states. In both 2016 and 2020, Wisconsin recorded some of the highest turnout rates in the US. In both cases, the winner was decided by fewer than 25,000 votes.
Pennsylvania: Particularly affected by the high cost of living. At the same time, natural gas drilling via fracking has made Pennsylvania the largest gas producer after Texas.
Georgia: In 2020, Joe Biden won Georgia by an incredibly narrow margin of 0.2%, marking the first Democratic victory in the state since 1992.
Post-Election Tension Preparedness
Washington is preparing for potential protests or unrest after the election. Businesses near the White House have already boarded up their entrances, reflecting concerns about potential reactions, especially given the high level of election polarisation and scepticism.
As Americans await the results, authorities are preparing for possible responses similar to the unrest following the 2016 election and the 6 January 2021 Capitol attack.
With both sides ready to challenge the results, Americans are bracing for the conclusion of a historic election and whatever may follow.
With information from APE-MPE-AFP, CNN
