The UN chief race moves into a second indicative vote on Friday, as the Security Council considers candidates to succeed Portuguese diplomat Antonio Guterres amid deep divisions within the body.
Five women and two men are currently seeking to replace Guterres, 77, whose second five-year term ends on December 31.
The 15 Security Council members are expected to begin meeting at 10 am New York time (5 pm Cyprus time). In a secret ballot, they will indicate whether they “encourage”, “discourage” or have “no opinion” on each candidate.
Greenspan leads after first vote
The first indicative vote, held on July 30, saw Rebeca Grynspan, former vice-president of Costa Rica and head of the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD), receive the highest number of positive responses.
“Diplomats expect the distribution of votes to fluctuate compared with the July vote,” Daniel Forti, an analyst at the International Crisis Group, told AFP.
The process is expected to show which candidates are emerging as favourites and could also eliminate some from the race.
“It is very likely that after the vote, some will realise that their campaign has reached the end of the road,” Forti said.
UN faces mounting pressure
The selection comes during one of the most difficult periods in the organisation’s history, with the UN facing weakening multilateral cooperation, deep divisions within the Security Council and serious financial difficulties.
Under increasing pressure from US President Donald Trump’s administration, which has increasingly questioned the UN’s role and funding, the organisation has struggled to play a decisive role in major international issues and conflicts.
Funding cuts have also threatened both its humanitarian operations and peacekeeping missions.
Candidate needs nine votes and no veto
The process could take weeks or even months to conclude. A candidate needs at least nine votes and must avoid a veto from any of the Security Council’s five permanent members: the United States, Russia, China, France and the United Kingdom.
The candidate selected by the Security Council is then submitted to the General Assembly, which has so far simply endorsed the council’s recommendation.
There is a tradition of geographical rotation for the post, although it is not always followed. Latin America is seeking the position this time, which explains why most candidates come from the region.
There is also growing pressure from several countries for a woman to become secretary-general for the first time.
Grynspan among current favourites
Grynspan currently appears to have an advantage over former Guyanese Foreign Minister Carolyn Rodrigues-Birkett, 52, and Argentine diplomat Rafael Grossi, 65, who currently heads the International Atomic Energy Agency.
Other candidates include former Chilean President Michelle Bachelet, 74; Ecuadorian diplomat María Fernanda Espinosa, 61; Ugandan politician and diplomat Olara Otunnu, 75; former Senegalese President Macky Sall, 64; and Ecuador’s ambassador to France, Ivonne Baki, 75.
No one is making firm predictions, as the preferences of member states remain unclear, particularly those of the five permanent members with veto powers.
Russian Ambassador to the UN Vasily Nebenzia also said on Thursday that new candidates could still enter the race.
“If, for example – I am just making a hypothesis at this point – we reach a deadlock over a candidate, and no other candidate secures sufficient support, I think we could see others emerge,” he said.
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