Solar energy production in Cyprus can drop by more than 20% during intense dust waves, according to new research by the Cyprus Institute. The study warns that the largest reductions occur on clear, sunny days when energy generation would normally peak, creating challenges for grid management and stability.
Machine learning analysis
Researchers developed a machine learning model to analyse over 1.6 million hourly measurements from 472 photovoltaic installations across Cyprus. This approach allowed them to accurately quantify how and when dust waves affect solar output, separating the impact of dust from cloud cover. The findings provide a critical tool for energy planning and forecasting in regions frequently affected by dust.
Implications for Cyprus’ solar strategy
Cyprus invests strategically in solar energy but is increasingly affected by dust storms. Dr. Theodoros Christoudias, Associate Professor at the Centre of Excellence for Climate and Atmospheric Research (CARE-C) at the Cyprus Institute, explained that dust is a major stress factor for solar systems in the Mediterranean. The study’s hourly, real-world measurements improve forecasting accuracy and help grid operators prepare for sudden drops in production.
PV DUST project and EU support
The research was conducted under the PV DUST project, which examines the impact of atmospheric dust on energy production in the Eastern Mediterranean. The project is funded by the European Union’s Recovery and Resilience Mechanism, through NextGenerationEU, via the Research and Innovation Foundation.
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