The United States appears ready to launch a strike on Iran within days. While military targets are largely predictable, the consequences remain uncertain. If no last-minute deal with Tehran succeeds and President Donald Trump orders action, several scenarios could unfold.
1. Targeted strikes and regime transition
US air and naval forces could conduct precision strikes on IRGC military bases, Basij paramilitary units, ballistic missile sites, and Iran’s nuclear facilities. In a highly optimistic scenario, the strikes topple the regime, leading to a transition to democracy.
However, experience in Iraq and Libya shows that Western interventions rarely produce smooth democratic transitions. While both countries removed brutal dictators, they endured years of chaos. Syria’s internally driven revolution in 2024 has fared better without foreign military support.
2. Regime survives but moderates
A “Venezuelan model” could emerge, with strong US action leaving the regime intact but forcing policy moderation. Iran might curtail support for regional militias, limit its nuclear and missile programs, and ease repression.
This scenario is unlikely. The Islamic Republic has resisted change for 47 years and appears incapable of shifting course now.
3. Regime collapses into military rule
Many analysts consider this the most probable outcome. While protests have weakened the regime, Iran’s deep security apparatus remains loyal and ready to use force. US strikes could create a power vacuum, allowing the IRGC to seize control through a military government.
4. Retaliation against US forces and allies
Iran has vowed to retaliate if attacked. Although it cannot match the US Navy and Air Force directly, Iran could deploy ballistic missiles, drones, and unconventional attacks from hidden sites. Targets could include US bases in Bahrain and Qatar, or critical infrastructure in nations perceived as complicit.
The 2019 missile strike on Saudi Aramco by Iran-backed militias highlighted regional vulnerabilities. Gulf allies remain on high alert for potential blowback.
5. Mining the Gulf
Iran could deploy sea mines in the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for global oil and LNG shipments. Such action would disrupt world trade and energy prices, repeating tactics from the Iran-Iraq war.
6. Sinking a US warship
Iran might attempt a “swarm attack” with drones and fast torpedo boats. The IRGC Navy has focused on asymmetric warfare to counter US naval advantages. A successful strike or the capture of US sailors would represent a major humiliation for the United States, though analysts consider this unlikely. Past incidents, such as the USS Cole bombing in 2000 and the USS Stark in 1987, illustrate potential vulnerability.
7. Regime collapses into chaos
The greatest regional concern is a collapse that triggers civil war or ethnic conflict. Kurds, Baluchis, and other minorities could assert control amid a power vacuum, creating a humanitarian crisis. While neighbours and Israel might welcome the end of the Islamic Republic, they would fear the destabilising effects on a country of 93 million people.
The risk of escalation
The central danger is a preemptive US strike driven by political pressure or fear of losing credibility. Any action could trigger unpredictable outcomes with far-reaching humanitarian, economic, and military repercussions.
Source: BBC
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