Israel election puts Netanyahu’s political future at stake

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Israelis are voting in the country’s first general election since the October 7, 2023, Hamas attack, with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu facing a close contest against rival Gadi Eisenkot.

The election on Tuesday follows three years of regional conflict and comes as Israelis remain divided over the government’s handling of security, the war in Gaza and the country’s political direction.

Opinion polls have suggested a tight race between Netanyahu’s bloc and parties seeking to remove him from power.

Coalition talks could decide the outcome

Israel’s fragmented parliamentary system means no single party has ever secured an outright majority. Political leaders must therefore negotiate with other parties to form a government.

With the race expected to be close, neither Netanyahu’s religious and ultranationalist coalition nor the opposition bloc may secure enough support to command a parliamentary majority.

Arab-led parties could play a decisive role if they agree to support one candidate. However, neither Netanyahu nor Eisenkot has publicly committed to partnering with the predominantly Arab political lists.

Final results could take several days, while negotiations to form a coalition could last weeks or months. If the parties fail to reach an agreement, another election could become necessary.

Vote becomes a referendum on Netanyahu

The election is widely seen as a test of Netanyahu’s lengthy leadership and the kind of state Israelis want, including the influence of religious and nationalist groups and the future of liberal and secular values.

Netanyahu’s supporters credit him with guiding Israel through multiple conflicts and consider his experience essential to national security.

His critics accuse him of deepening divisions, undermining judicial independence and prolonging the Gaza war and hostage crisis for political reasons. They also criticise his failure to take responsibility for the security failures surrounding the October 7 attack.

Netanyahu, who returned to power in December 2022, is also facing an ongoing corruption trial and criticism over exemptions from compulsory military service for ultra-Orthodox religious students.

Eisenkot promises inquiry into October 7 attack

Eisenkot, 66, is seeking to unite parties ranging from the right to the centre-left around the goal of replacing Netanyahu.

He has pledged to establish an independent state commission of inquiry into the security failures that led to the October 7 attack. Netanyahu’s government has resisted calls for such an investigation.

Eisenkot has also promised to improve Israel’s international standing, strengthen judicial independence and introduce compulsory military service for ultra-Orthodox men.

However, he has said he would prevent the creation of a Palestinian state and expressed support for Israeli settlements, while pledging to crack down on violent settlers.

Regional tensions remain in focus

Security concerns remain central to the campaign, particularly tensions with Iran and the continuing consequences of the October 7 attack and subsequent regional conflicts.

Netanyahu increased his warnings to Tehran ahead of the vote, saying Iran would face a “devastating blow” if it attacked Israel.

The election also comes as Israel faces mounting international criticism over its conduct in Gaza and violence by Jewish settlers in the occupied West Bank.

The results will determine whether Netanyahu can assemble a new governing coalition or whether rival parties can secure enough support to end his time in office.


Also read: UN accuses Israel of extermination in the West Bank
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