The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) has warned that a prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz could trigger a systemic shock to global agrifood systems, potentially leading to a sharp rise in food prices within six to twelve months.
The warning highlights growing concerns over global supply chain vulnerabilities linked to geopolitical tensions and energy market disruptions.
Risk of rising global food prices
According to the FAO, disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz could lead to cascading effects across energy, fertiliser, and food supply chains, ultimately resulting in higher production costs and increased global food prices.
The organisation stressed that decisions made by governments and farmers at this stage, ranging from fertiliser use to imports and financing, will determine the severity of any future crisis.
Call for preventive measures
FAO chief economist Máximo Torero urged countries to act early, calling for greater resilience and preparedness to reduce potential impacts.
The organisation recommended alternative trade routes, moderation in export restrictions, protection of humanitarian supply chains, and the creation of food reserves to absorb rising transport costs.
Broader economic concerns
The FAO noted that its Food Price Index has increased for three consecutive months, driven by higher energy costs and disruptions linked to conflicts in the Middle East.
It warned that the situation could worsen further due to the possible impact of El Niño, which may bring droughts and disrupt agricultural production patterns in multiple regions.
Long-term mitigation strategies
Among more than twenty measures proposed, the FAO highlighted alternative shipping routes away from the Strait of Hormuz, concessional loans for farmers, and the establishment of regional food reserves as key steps to reduce global vulnerability.
The organisation emphasised that the window for preventive action is rapidly closing.
Source: CNA
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