War fallout reaches rural households
A growing fertiliser supply crisis linked to tensions in the Middle East is beginning to affect farmers across South Asia, raising costs and deepening uncertainty ahead of key planting seasons.
For farmers like 42-year-old Ramesh Kumar in India’s Punjab, the impact goes beyond agriculture. Rising fertiliser prices now shape decisions about household expenses, school fees and even family events such as his daughter’s wedding.
“Everything depends on the crop,” he said, as he calculated this year’s expected yield against mounting costs.
Strait of Hormuz disruption drives concern
At the centre of the crisis lies the Strait of Hormuz, a critical global shipping route through which around one-fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas passes.
Following the outbreak of conflict involving the United States, Israel and Iran, the route has faced disruption, slowing fertiliser supply chains and increasing transport and insurance costs.
Fertilisers rely heavily on natural gas, particularly for nitrogen-based products, meaning delays in shipments quickly translate into higher prices and reduced availability.
Agriculture sector highly exposed
South Asia, home to nearly two billion people, depends heavily on fertiliser-intensive farming to sustain staple crops such as wheat and rice.
In India, agriculture supports more than half the population, while the sector employs around 38% of workers in Pakistan, nearly 40% in Bangladesh and over 60% in Nepal.
All four countries rely significantly on fertiliser imports, with a notable share passing through or linked to routes connected to the Strait of Hormuz.
Farmers already feeling the pressure
On the ground, farmers report early signs of strain.
In Indian-administered Kashmir, mustard farmer Ghulam Rasool said prices rise even before shortages appear. “Even before supply problems, fertiliser becomes expensive,” he said, adding that farmers often reduce usage in anticipation.
In Pakistan, wheat farmer Muneer Ahmad warned that even small increases in cost have immediate consequences. “We already have loans and expenses. If costs go up, we feel it immediately,” he said.
Farmers in Bangladesh and Nepal also report unpredictable supply and fear delays, with some already preparing to cut fertiliser use – a move that could reduce crop yields.
Governments seek to reassure markets
Authorities across the region have moved to reassure farmers. India has expanded domestic production and diversified imports, while Pakistan says it is monitoring supply and boosting fertiliser output.
Bangladesh has announced plans to import additional urea and explore alternative suppliers, while Nepal says supplies remain stable for now but warns of possible delays.
Despite these efforts, uncertainty remains high at the local level.
Risk of rising food prices
Experts warn that any sustained disruption in fertiliser supply could reduce agricultural output and drive up food prices – a major concern in a region where households already spend a large share of income on food.
Governments may need to increase subsidies to cushion the impact, placing further pressure on public finances.
For farmers like Kumar, the crisis has already forced difficult choices. He plans to reduce fertiliser use this season, despite the risk to his harvest.
“It is a risk,” he said. “But what choice do we have?”
Lower yields could mean less income and tougher trade-offs at home.
“School fees must be paid. Household expenses cannot stop,” he said, glancing across his field.
“And the wedding… we will see.”
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