A video posted on the Kitas Weather Facebook account has recreated the ignition process behind the deadly Limassol wildfire.
According to the post, the experiment was conducted under much milder conditions- a temperature of 27°C, relative humidity of 60% and a light breeze of just 1 Beaufort- with far less combustible material (compare the ash), and therefore a much smaller thermal load. Even so, nothing remained of the cigarette butt.
Kitas Weather statement
“At the time the fire broke out, the pyro-meteorological conditions were indeed highly favourable for ignition from a discarded cigarette, and from the very beginning we believed and stated that this was the most likely cause. Without a witness at the exact moment of ignition, however, it is very difficult- if not impossible- to establish this conclusively.
A cigarette requires certain prerequisites to spark a fire. First, it must fall in the ‘right- spot: dry, thin fuel with very low moisture content. At the same time, the right weather conditions are needed- temperatures of around 30°C or higher, relative humidity of 30% or lower, and average wind intensity of 3–4 Beaufort or more.
In this case, more favourable conditions could not have existed: the temperature was 40°C, relative humidity 19%, and average wind speed 5 Beaufort with gusts up to 7.”
How ignition occurs
Such conditions allow a cigarette to remain lit for a long time before burning out or reaching the filter. The butt then begins smouldering in the dry grass, producing no visible flame at first, before ignition occurs.
As the ignition develops, the cigarette itself is further heated, allowing it to continue burning or to ignite surrounding fuel if present, rather than extinguishing.
In the controlled experiment under much milder conditions- 27°C, 60% relative humidity and 1 Beaufort wind- with far less combustible material, no cigarette butt remained at all.
Kitas Weather’s video shows how easily a butt can disappear completely, even without the extreme weather factors that were in place during the July blaze.
Also read: ATF report sparks debate over arson, evidence, and accountability
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