EU finance ministers are facing difficult negotiations over tobacco taxes, as they seek agreement on higher minimum excise duties and common rules covering tobacco, vaping and nicotine products.
The talks are taking place at Monday’s Ecofin meeting in Brussels, where the Irish Presidency is presenting a new compromise proposal. However, significant differences remain between member states, making an agreement among all 27 countries uncertain.
Member states divided over proposed increases
The Irish Presidency hopes to secure agreement on raising minimum excise duties and introducing common taxation rules for tobacco, vaping and nicotine products.
Several countries, including Greece, are calling for smaller increases and longer transition periods. They argue that sharp tax rises could place an additional burden on consumers and encourage the illegal tobacco trade.
The European Commission’s original proposal, presented in July 2025, would raise the minimum excise duty on cigarettes from €90 to €215 per 1,000 cigarettes, an increase of approximately 139%.
It would also extend the EU taxation framework to heated tobacco products, e-cigarette refill liquids and nicotine pouches.
The Commission says the changes aim to reduce tobacco consumption, improve public health protection and address significant differences in taxation between member states.
Could cigarette prices reach €13 a pack?
Countries in southern Europe have raised concerns about both the scale and speed of the proposed increases. They warn that higher prices could push more consumers towards the illegal market.
One of the main questions facing EU ministers is how much more consumers could pay for a packet of cigarettes, and when any increases would take effect.
Based on the Commission’s original proposal, a price of €13 per packet could be considered a moderate rather than an extreme estimate.
An analysis by the Centre of Planning and Economic Research (KEPE) in Greece indicated that the average price of cigarettes could increase by as much as 569.6%, potentially reaching six times its current level.
However, the same study also highlighted the potential impact on tobacco smuggling and public revenue if legal cigarette consumption falls.
Agreement among the 27 remains uncertain
Reaching an agreement among all 27 EU member states is considered difficult, with a possible six-month postponement of decisions also being discussed.
The outcome of the negotiations will determine whether the proposed changes move forward and how quickly consumers across the EU could face higher tobacco prices.
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