Former RAF commander raises concerns
The Akrotiri base defence has come under scrutiny following the drone strike near the RAF base in Cyprus, prompting debate about whether the facility is sufficiently protected.
Greg Bagwell, a former senior commander of the Royal Air Force and current president of the UK Air & Space Power Association, published an extensive analysis on X addressing whether the base had been adequately defended.
His intervention comes amid growing reports of a possible missile attack targeting the base as tensions escalate between the United States, Israel, and Iran.
Did we defend Akrotiri enough? Akrotiri is a critical hub for the UK in the eastern Mediterranean. It has been a key logistics base for supporting operations further East, and as an operational hub for operations in its own right. It’s not much of a secret what it does.🧵1/13 pic.twitter.com/ceOTeeJW5B
— Greg Bagwell (@gregbagwell) March 8, 2026
Strategic role in the Eastern Mediterranean
RAF Akrotiri serves as a crucial operational hub for missions and logistics across the Eastern Mediterranean.
According to Bagwell, the base’s activity is far from secret, as it regularly supports operations further east while functioning as a self-contained operational centre.
Rising tensions between the United States and Iran, coupled with warnings of a wider regional conflict, have already pushed security alert levels higher across the region.
Reinforcements deployed before hostilities
Bagwell noted that the United Kingdom had strengthened the base roughly a month before hostilities began.
Additional fighter aircraft, including Eurofighter Typhoon and F-35B Lightning II jets, were deployed alongside extra ground forces. Units from the RAF Regiment were also positioned to protect the facility.
There were also reports suggesting elements of the Sky Sabre air defence system had been deployed.
Before the outbreak of hostilities, Bagwell said such preparations appeared adequate, noting that the fighter jets were more likely intended for intercepting drones over Iraq or Jordan rather than defending the base itself.
Surprise attack shifts threat perception
Initially, Britain was not expected to participate directly in US strikes, leading analysts to assess the risk to Akrotiri as relatively low.
However, American and Israeli attacks on Iran began before the collapse of Geneva negotiations, catching many observers off guard.
According to reports cited by Bagwell, it remains unclear exactly what was launched towards the British bases.
Some reports suggested two ballistic missiles were fired towards Cyprus alongside two drones that were intercepted over the sea, while one missile reportedly struck the airfield during the first Sunday of the attacks.
International response after the strike
Following the incident, several European countries moved military assets closer to the region to protect what Bagwell described as the European Union’s most exposed area.
Britain decided to deploy the Type 45 destroyer HMS Dragon (D35), which is expected to sail towards Cyprus.
In addition, Crowsnest airborne early warning helicopters and helicopters equipped with Martlet missiles are being deployed to strengthen close-range defence against drones and missiles.
HMS Dragon has been equipped with ammunition and vital supplies, ensuring full operational readiness.
— Royal Navy (@RoyalNavy) March 8, 2026
The mission will strengthen capability in the Eastern Mediterranean, ensuring our people are protected and that British interests are defended. pic.twitter.com/gDiEElBMbI
Criticism over delayed reaction
Bagwell also pointed out that since the first reported attack, believed to have originated from Lebanon, no further launches towards Cyprus have been reported.
This may partly be due to the American and Israeli strikes targeting Iran and Hezbollah.
However, he questioned whether the latest reinforcements represent a genuine military requirement or a political reaction.
As he put it, the response may resemble “closing the stable door after the horse has already bolted.”
Future defence needs
With the arrival of HMS Dragon, Akrotiri will have access to nearly the full range of Britain’s available air defence options.
Nevertheless, Bagwell stressed that stronger ground-based missile and drone defence systems may still be required.
He warned that if a full-scale war breaks out in the region, defensive measures would need to be significantly reinforced as threats continue to grow.
Wider geopolitical context
Bagwell’s analysis also attempts to separate military realities from political narratives surrounding the incident.
He noted that before the war began, very few voices were calling for additional military deployments to Akrotiri.
His thread was accompanied by satellite images of the base, highlighting the increasing importance of open-source intelligence in monitoring military installations.
Also read: Turkey F-16 deployment in occupied Cyprus today
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