Greece is expected to issue a NAVTEX over the weekend allowing surveys to resume for the Great Sea Interconnector, the electricity cable linking Cyprus and Crete, Greek media reported on Thursday.
The French-flagged survey vessel Abeille Marengo, which is currently in the port of Heraklion, is expected to head to the survey area as soon as the NAVTEX comes into force.
Surveys were suspended in 2024 following an intervention by Turkish warships.
The expected move is seen as an important step for the project and for Greece’s exercise of its sovereign rights, according to the reports.
Licensing decision expected by Friday
Members of a special inter-ministerial committee operating under the Greek Foreign Ministry were reportedly asked on 2 November to submit their recommendations on licensing the project by Friday.
If the recommendation is positive, the Hellenic Coast Guard is expected to issue an exemption permit for the Abeille Marengo.
The company managing the project would then formally request a NAVTEX through the Greek Defence Ministry, allowing the Hellenic Navy Hydrographic Service to issue the notice immediately.
Assessments point to limited Turkish reaction
Well-informed sources cited in the reports believe the period following the US midterm elections offers a favourable opportunity to resume the surveys, while reducing the risk of a repeat of the 2024 incident.
Following contacts between France and Turkey, they expect Ankara either not to react or to limit its response to routine radio challenges, known as hailing.
The assessments suggest that a new US Congress controlled by the Democratic Party could restrict President Donald Trump’s room for manoeuvre in responding to Turkish demands, particularly Ankara’s bid to return to the F-35 fighter jet programme.
Turkey is therefore not expected to risk a serious escalation that could draw the attention of Congress.
The reports also suggest that tensions involving Israel and the war in Iran could make further regional confrontation a high-risk move for Ankara. They argue that escalating tensions would weaken Turkey’s position that Israel and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu are responsible for instability in the region.
Turkey maintains its objections to surveys
Despite these assessments, Ankara is not expected to accept measures it considers contrary to its interests and claims.
Turkey has warned that it will protect its rights and will not allow what it describes as “unauthorised research in the area of the Turkish continental shelf”.
A French proposal to “inform” Turkey about the surveys appears to have been accepted by Ankara, according to the reports. The arrangement is seen as providing a way for Turkey to avoid appearing to back down.
However, the proposed formula has been questioned because there is no obligation to notify any state other than the coastal state whose continental shelf is involved. That state receives the licensing application and issues the NAVTEX.
Turkey is likely to present the notification as a request for permission and is expected to issue its own NAVTEX for the surveys.
Under established practice, the Heraklion station would then issue a counter-NAVTEX stating that the surveys are taking place on the Greek continental shelf and that the Greek NAVTEX is the valid notice.
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