A strong El Niño is intensifying across the tropical Pacific, with sea surface temperatures in key monitoring regions reaching exceptionally high levels and forecasts pointing to further strengthening later this year.
NOAA’s latest assessment says El Niño is strengthening, with more than a 90% chance of a very strong event during the Northern Hemisphere autumn and winter of 2026–27. Sea surface temperature anomalies in the eastern equatorial Pacific have already exceeded 3°C.
Record-breaking Pacific temperatures
The Niño 3.4 region, a key indicator used to monitor El Niño, is located in the central equatorial Pacific. The latest data cited by the El Niño Observatory of Greece’s meteo.gr show sea surface temperatures in the region at about 29.6°C, with the anomaly approaching 3°C compared with the 1991–2020 average.
NOAA’s September diagnostic assessment had recorded a +1.8°C anomaly in Niño 3.4, while the Niño 3 and Niño 1+2 regions further east recorded +2.5°C and +3.4°C respectively.
The unusually warm conditions are developing ahead of the period when El Niño typically reaches its strongest intensity. The World Meteorological Organization said on September 3 that the phenomenon was expected to strengthen further and peak towards the end of 2026, with impacts potentially continuing into 2027.
Drought and wildfire risks
El Niño can alter rainfall and temperature patterns across large parts of the world. The WMO has warned of increased risks of drought, floods and extreme heat as the current event strengthens.
Parts of Southeast Asia are already experiencing severe impacts. Indonesia has faced drought conditions and wildfires, while unusually dry conditions are affecting agriculture and water availability in parts of the region. Recent reporting has also highlighted risks to crops and food supplies across Asia as the event develops.
El Niño can also suppress tropical cyclone activity in the Atlantic by strengthening upper-level winds that make it harder for tropical systems to develop and intensify. NOAA has linked the current warming trend in the Niño 3.4 region to reduced Atlantic hurricane activity.
More than 450,000 heat-related deaths projected
A new Climate Impact Lab study estimates that more than 451,000 additional deaths could be associated with extreme heat between September 2026 and February 2027 as a result of the unusually strong El Niño.
The figure is a projection, not a count of deaths that have already occurred. Researchers compared expected heat-related mortality under the developing El Niño with mortality expected during a typical year.
The study estimates that global land temperatures could rise by about 1.2°C as a result of the event, while extremely hot days could become 44% more frequent than in an average year.
Nigeria, Indonesia, Sudan, India and Brazil are among the countries projected to experience the largest impacts over the six-month period. The United States is also among the 20 countries expected to be most affected, with around 3,500 additional heat-related deaths projected.
Researchers said elevated heat-related mortality could continue beyond February and into June or July 2027, although the longer-term estimates are subject to greater uncertainty because they extend beyond current temperature forecasts.
Preparing for the impacts
The Climate Impact Lab study highlights measures including stronger heat-warning systems, cooling centres, additional healthcare capacity during periods of extreme heat and protections for outdoor workers.
The WMO has likewise urged countries to strengthen preparedness and early-warning systems as the El Niño event develops.
Current forecasts indicate that the strong El Niño could remain a major influence on global weather patterns through the winter and into 2027.
Also read: Hurricane Polo intensifies into Category 5 storm off Mexico
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