In just eleven days, Bashar al-Assad has fallen.
Nearly 14 years after the uprising in Syria began—an uprising many believed to be over—events have suddenly accelerated.
The map of the Middle East may now be redrawn from scratch.
Assad’s fall follows two cataclysmic events that, according to some analysts, have led to the collapse of the Iran-aligned bloc.
The collapse of Assad’s allies
The first event was the decapitation of the military leadership of Lebanon’s Hezbollah movement by Israel.
The second was the assassination in Iran of Ismail Haniyeh, the leader of the Palestinian Islamist movement Hamas, also attributed to Israel.
These two events targeted key allies of the now-deposed Syrian president.
The rapid advance of the radical Islamist Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS)—formerly al-Qaeda’s Syrian affiliate, which claims to have severed ties with the group—and Turkish-backed rebel factions caught the world by surprise. Syrians, both allies and adversaries, along with foreign governments, experts, and journalists, had been focused on Gaza and Lebanon for over a year, not Damascus.
President Assad had seemed immovable, but the striking power of his main allies—Iran, Russia, and Hezbollah—appeared diminished, if not shattered.
Efforts to normalise relations with other Arab nations had even begun.
Yet, all this disintegrated within days. Syrians trampled statues of Hafez al-Assad. His son, Bashar, fled.
Iran’s vulnerabilities exposed
Following Hamas’ unprecedented raid on southern Israel on October 7, 2023, Iran and the “Axis of Resistance” became embroiled in a conflict that analysts say exposed the Islamic Republic’s vulnerabilities.
Hezbollah suffered heavy losses in the war against Israel, including the decimation of its leadership and the death of its iconic leader, Hassan Nasrallah.
Supply routes for arms and funds from Tehran, already targeted by Israel on Iranian soil, are now further threatened by the new power brokers in Damascus—who certainly have not forgotten Assad’s role in crushing the rebellion.
Other Iran-aligned forces in Yemen and Iran, while capable of harassment against U.S. allies or Sunni regional powers, are no longer seen as capable of upending the status quo.
For Andreas Krieg of King’s College London, “The Axis of Resistance is losing its international dimension and its regional strategic depth.”
Russia’s struggles and Turkey’s gains
Russia, meanwhile, remains bogged down in its war in Ukraine and faces the potential loss of its largest naval base in the Middle East, located in Tartus on Syria’s Mediterranean coast. “It’s hard to imagine the new sociopolitical order in Damascus allowing the Russians to remain after all they’ve done for the Assad regime,” predicts Krieg.
On the other hand, Turkey, the patron of rebel factions involved in the offensive, is seen as “the big winner,” according to Krieg. However, while Turkey may “have influence,” it does not have “control,” he warns.
This comes as the Middle East faces the threat of “war everywhere,” compounded by the potential “return of Donald Trump,” notes Aron Lund of the Century International think tank.
Post-Assad questions
“With Assad’s regime gone, questions arise about its replacement and how long it will take for a new order to emerge. We will see regional repercussions of all kinds,” Lund warned.
In Syria, influence since 2011 has often been measured in petrodollars distributed among various opposition factions.
Eventually, Gulf states—even the United Arab Emirates—were compelled to negotiate with Assad, who had been an ally of their adversary, Iran.
Now, they face an even worse scenario. “Those who panicked over the Muslim Brotherhood now see the Brotherhood in Damascus in its most extreme form—far more militant and hostile to them,” according to Lund.
The Trump factor and regional uncertainty
Meanwhile, Israel, like other countries in the region, awaits January, when the cards may be reshuffled, potentially changing the game entirely.
From Rabat to Riyadh, Tehran to Khartoum, leaders and their opponents are manoeuvring to secure concessions from Donald Trump, known for his transactional approach to diplomacy.
Trump has already stated, in his typically blunt manner, that the “mess” in Syria was not “Washington’s fight.”
In any case, the Republican may face a very different Middle East upon his return.
Krieg speaks of “the end of the myth of stability under authoritarian regimes,” and a “warning to the Haftar, Sisi, and Saied regimes of the world.”
He refers to Libya’s military leader Khalifa Haftar, Egypt’s President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi, and Tunisia’s President Kais Saied.
Back in 2011, during the so-called Arab Spring, authoritarian regimes that had ruled for decades were toppled in all three of these countries.
Also read: Erdoğan: “A new political and diplomatic reality in Syria”
Source: ANA-MPA-AFP
