Significant reshuffles in the political landscape and strong volatility are recorded in the latest Sigma poll for the upcoming parliamentary elections in Cyprus, according to electoral analyst Nasios Oreinos speaking on “Protoselido”.
He explained that the results reflect an “estimate of vote share” rather than a simple voting intention, aiming to map likely electoral trends more accurately.
Statistical overlaps shape race
Oreinos noted that overlapping ranges between parties leave room for changes in ranking, especially for positions from third place onwards.
He described the rise of ELAM as a “clear fact” compared to the 2021 elections, saying the party maintains an advantage for third place.
However, he added that statistical overlaps exist between ELAM, ALMA and Direct Democracy, meaning shifts remain possible.
Battle for first place remains open
At the top of the ranking, the model suggests that DISY retains first place, although with reduced support compared to 2021.
He also said that AKEL could potentially gain ground if trends move within projected margins.
Seat changes expected in Parliament
According to the projection, between 17 and 22 seats could change hands in the next Parliament.
Expected changes include:
- DISY: loss of 2–4 seats
- AKEL: loss of 1–3 seats
- DIKO: loss of 3–4 seats
- Smaller parties also expected to lose seats
On the other hand, gains are projected for:
- ELAM: +3 to +5 seats
- ALMA and Direct Democracy: combined 6–7 seats
- Volt Cyprus: 2–4 seats
Toward a more fragmented Parliament
Oreinos said the next Parliament is expected to change political balances significantly, making negotiations more complex and shifting away from traditional two-party dominance.
He added that the new legislature could be a seven- or eight-party, with a possibility of up to nine parties entering, depending on final thresholds.
He also highlighted increased chances for Volt Cyprus to enter Parliament, while smaller formations such as EDEK remain in contention.
“Elections are still open”
Closing his remarks, Oreinos stressed that the projection reflects direction rather than a final outcome.
“Elections are not over yet,” he said, adding that parties can still move within their projected ranges before the vote.
Also read: Christodoulides vows reunification of Cyprus in Greek Parliament
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