The last nuclear arms treaty between Russia and the United States will expire on Thursday, removing limits on the two largest atomic arsenals for the first time in more than 50 years. Experts warn the end of New START could trigger an unconstrained nuclear arms race.
Russian President Vladimir Putin offered to stick to the treaty’s limits for another year if Washington reciprocates, but President Donald Trump has not committed to an extension. A White House official said Trump will make his decision “on his own timeline” while exploring ways to include China in future arms control talks.
Global reactions and risks
Beijing has rejected restrictions on its smaller but growing nuclear arsenal. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov called a world without New START limits “more dangerous,” echoing long-standing concerns among arms control advocates about rising global instability and nuclear risks.
Daryl Kimball, executive director of the Arms Control Association, warned that both sides could now increase deployed nuclear weapons for the first time in 35 years. He said this could trigger a three-way arms race involving the U.S., Russia, and China.
Putin’s nuclear posture
Since invading Ukraine in 2022, Putin has repeatedly displayed Russia’s nuclear capabilities. His 2024 nuclear doctrine lowers the threshold for nuclear weapon use. Kingston Reif of the RAND Corporation said without treaty predictability, both nations may expand arsenals to signal strength or gain negotiating leverage.
Treaty background
Signed in 2010 by U.S. President Barack Obama and Russian President Dmitry Medvedev, New START limited each side to 1,550 nuclear warheads on 700 deployed missiles and bombers. On-site inspections stopped in 2020 due to COVID-19 and never resumed.
Putin suspended Russia’s participation in February 2023, citing U.S. and NATO actions aimed at defeating Moscow in Ukraine. He reaffirmed that Russia would respect weapon caps and later offered a one-year adherence in September 2024 to allow negotiations on a successor pact.
Historical context
New START followed decades of U.S.-Russian nuclear agreements, starting with SALT I in 1972 and the 1972 Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty. The 2019 termination of the Intermediate-range Nuclear Forces Treaty left fewer constraints on missile development.
Russia responded to U.S. missile defence initiatives, including Trump’s Golden Dome proposal, by developing advanced nuclear systems such as the Burevestnik nuclear-powered cruise missile and the Poseidon underwater drone.
A turning point for global security
Analysts say the treaty’s end could mark a dangerous new era of nuclear competition. Resuming U.S. nuclear tests or deploying new missile systems could prompt Russia, China, and others to expand arsenals, undermining decades of nuclear risk reduction.
Daryl Kimball said, “This could accelerate strategic competition and destabilise relations among the U.S., Russia, and China, creating a period more dangerous than any we’ve seen in our lifetimes.”
Source: AP News
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